New polls find Warnock-Walker race deadlocked

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and his Republican rival, Herschel Walker, are heading into Election Day deadlocked, according to a new Marist College poll. 

The poll, released Friday, shows the two candidates tied at 48 percent each among voters who say they will “definitely” vote in the 2022 midterm elections. With a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, the race could swing either way come Election Day.

Warnock performs slightly better among registered voters overall, taking 49 percent support to Walker’s 45 percent. He also has the edge among independents; 48 percent of those voters are backing Warnock, while 36 percent are supporting Walker. 

And there are also signs that some GOP voters could cross party lines to cast their ballots for Warnock. Eight percent of Republicans say they are supporting the Democratic incumbent, while only 1 percent of Democrats are behind Walker, the Marist poll found. 

Notably, neither candidate is breaching the 50 percent threshold needed to win the election outright. Georgia law requires a candidate to receive more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. If the poll results hold up, the Georgia Senate race would head into overtime, culminating in a Dec. 6 runoff election.

In another positive sign for Warnock, he has the support of 51 percent of voters who say they’ve already cast their ballots. Walker holds 47 percent support among those voters, though Republicans tend to have higher Election Day turnout, meaning there’s still time for Walker to close the gap.

The Marist poll is only the latest survey to show the race between Warnock and Walker tightening in its final stretch. A poll released on Thursday from The Hill and Emerson College found Warnock with only a narrow, 2-point lead over Walker, putting the contest within the margin of error.

It’s one of a handful of races this year that will help determine control of the Senate. Democrats hold a slim 50-50 majority in the upper chamber, meaning that a Republican net gain of even one seat could cost Democrats their control. 

The Marist poll surveyed 1,168 registered voters in Georgia — including 1,009 who say they will definitely vote — from Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error among all registered voters is 3.9 percentage points.