Seven races to watch for early signs of House results

The final partisan breakdown of the House is unlikely to be known on election night or in the days after, as states such as New York and California, where Republicans hope to pick up many seats, often take weeks to tabulate final results. 

But there are some congressional districts that could see results relatively early on election night that have environments similar to many other competitive districts across the country, providing clues about the overall trends in the electorate that will determine the final congressional breakdown.

Here are seven races to monitor for early signs of a red ripple — or a red wave — for the GOP in the House.

Races to watch for a good GOP night

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Yesli Vega (R)

Yesli Vega and Rep. Abigail Spanberger

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +6.8

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Spanberger is going head-to-head with Vega, a member of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The district went for President Biden by close to 7 points in 2020, and the congressional lines give Democrats a very slight edge. 

Though the two-term incumbent is used to close races — she won her elections in 2018 and 2020 by roughly 2 percentage points — The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman noted last month when it moved the House race from “lean Democrat” to a toss-up that one challenge for Spanberger has been having to introduce herself to a majority-new district. That’s an expensive feat given that it’s in the Washington, D.C., media market. 

Democrats are acutely aware of the challenging reelections Spanberger and Reps. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) and Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) face in the state and criticized the redistricting process. 

“It was the women who got the short end of the stick in Virginia,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters in his Capitol office. “I’d be angry about that.”

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. J.R. Majewski (R)

J.R. Majewski and Rep. Marcy Kaptur

Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Trump +2.9

Cook Political Report rating: lean D

Prior to mid-September, Majewski had a clearer path to an upset against Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. After all, the congressional lines for this district give Republicans an edge, and this district went for former President Trump by about 3 points in 2020. Even Kaptur, who’s served in the House for close to 40 years, ran ads separating herself from Biden, as Democrats have been forced to contend with his underwater approval ratings.

But after The Associated Press ran a story later that month reporting that Majewski had misrepresented his military experience, the House Republicans’ campaign arm promptly withdrew an ad buy of close to $1 million. Within days, The Cook Political Report shifted its forecast of the race from a toss-up to “lean Democrat.”

If Majewski can overcome allegations of stolen valor — in addition to attack ads tying him to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot — it would be seen as a major feat for House Republicans. 

Indiana’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) vs. Jennifer-Ruth Green (R)

Jennifer-Ruth Green and Rep. Frank Mrvan

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +8.5

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Democrats have represented Indiana’s 1st Congressional District for decades, and this district went for Biden in 2020 by more than 8 points. Mrvan won this seat last cycle by double digits, and the district’s congressional lines favor Democrats, meaning Democrats should theoretically win this seat.

But if Green wins this district, as Wasserman notes, it could signal a good night for Republicans, who could pick up at least 20 seats in the House. Even if Mrvan prevails against Green, who served full time in the Air Force for 12 years and is still in the Air Force Air Reserve Component, a win in the single digits can still serve as a warning for Democrats about Republicans’ momentum in more Democratic-friendly seats.

Races to watch for signs of a massive red wave

Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District: Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) vs. George Logan (R)

U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes and George Logan

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +10.7

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

The Western Connecticut district is part of a group of New England reach targets for Republicans that they think are in play due to voter frustration with Democratic control. And while Republicans are not certain they will win it, the fact that Republicans are competitive in a district that Biden won by nearly 11 points has them optimistic about the rest of the midterm map.

“If we’re picking off a double-digit Biden seat with an incumbent — I think that says it’s a pretty significant night,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund PAC that is aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in a briefing with reporters on Friday.

Hayes, who is seeking a third term in the district, faces Logan, a former state senator who has had some challenges with fundraising.

Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District: Seth Magaziner (D) vs. Allan Fung (R)

Allan Fung and Seth Magaziner

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +13.7

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Republican strategists think that winning the Rhode Island seat puts the GOP on the path to a majority with seats in the range of the high 230s to the low 240s, making for a substantial cushion for GOP leaders and a very good night for the party.

Current Rep. Jim Langevin (D) is retiring at the end of his term, and the open seat makes it more challenging for Democrats. Magaziner is the former Rhode Island treasurer, while Fung is the former mayor of Cranston and the state’s 2018 gubernatorial GOP nominee.

Races to watch for signs of a better night for Democrats than expected

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Tom Kean, Jr. and Tom Malinowski

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +3.8

Cook Political Report rating: lean R

Redistricting for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District put Malinowski at a disadvantage this election cycle. His old seat gave Democrats an edge under the old congressional lines. The new seat, however, now leans toward Republicans.

The House race has also proved expensive, with NJ Spotlight News reporting last month that, according to the latest filings at the time, at least $11.5 million had been spent by the campaigns of Malinowski, Kean and independent committees. But there’s reason to believe Malinowski could prevail again given that he flipped the Republican stronghold seat in 2018. 

It’s also not Malinowski’s first time winning a reelection bid against Kean. The two went head-to-head in 2020, and Malinowski won the race by just over a point.

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans (R)

Sen. Jen Kiggans and Rep. Elaine Luria

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +1.9

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Kiggans, a former state senator and a Navy veteran, is a top Republican congressional recruit — and her race was the first that the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund engaged in this cycle. Republicans are confident about their chances of flipping the Virginia Beach-area district.

It would be a major disappointment for Republicans if Luria, who was elected during the 2018 blue wave, prevailed in that race — and would likely be an early warning sign that Republican hopes of unleashing a red midterm wave hit a significant breaker.

Mike Lillis contributed.