Luntz cites multiple factors in pollsters’ wrong predictions

Pollster Frank Luntz gave four reasons on Monday morning that so many pundits, including himself, wrongly predicted Republicans would win the House and Senate during last week’s midterm elections.

Support for former President Trump was overestimated, people changed their votes at the ballot box, independents broke for Democrats and redistricting affected results, Luntz told “CNN This Morning.”

“We knew from 2016, 2018 and even 2020 that Trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought that the results would be used against them,” said the communications strategist, adding that past errors caused pollsters to overindex Republicans.

Luntz claimed that 8 to 9 percent of voters “come in undecided, and they have to decide at that moment” or “come in potentially wanting to vote one way, and they end up voting the other,” swaying election results compared to preliminary polls.

The pollster added that independents broke 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans during last week’s elections, while they normally break 55-45 for Republicans.

“If they break 60-40, Republicans win,” said Luntz. “In this case, they broke 50-50. That’s a real problem for the GOP. It’s a major drop.”

Luntz predicted before Tuesday that the GOP would win 233 to 240 House seats; however, the party has 212 seats so far, with about 20 races uncalled.

He also forecast that Republicans would take control of the Senate, according to a tweet from last week.