Cook Political Report moves 9 House races toward Dems

The Cook Political Report, a top nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted nine House races to more favorable for Democrats in this year’s midterm elections.

The new rating changes released on Friday come a few days after Pennsylvania’s nationally watched House special election, where Democrats will likely have a huge upset in a district that President Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016.

Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory and leads Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone by 627 votes, but some media outlets have yet to call the race.

{mosads}Some of the most notable rating changes include three races that have shifted from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”: the seats held by GOP Reps. Leonard Lance (N.J.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Keith Rothfus (Pa.).

Fitzpatrick’s and Rothfus’s seats became more favorable for Democrats after Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court redrew the state’s congressional map in its gerrymandering case. While Republicans are challenging the new lines, they’re still likely to go into effect for the midterms.

Following Tuesday’s likely victory, Lamb is looking to switch districts and is preparing a run for Rothfus’s seat. The seat Lamb is poised to win will not exist under the new map, and the area will be drawn into a new, open-seat district that is even more favorable territory for Republicans.

Other notable rating changes include the shift from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” for Rep. Steve Pearce’s (R-N.M.) open seat and the special election to fill the seat vacated by ex-Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio). Rep. Ami Bera’s (D-Calif.) seat, which is a frequent GOP target, has also shifted from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.

There are also several seats that were already considered safe for Democrats that have tilted even more in their direction, including the shift from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in the seats held by Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Only one rating change favors Republicans due to the new maps in Pennsylvania: the seat that will likely be held by Lamb through the end of year. It will now shift from “toss-up” to “likely Republican.” Saccone has been circulating petitions to run in the new district.