Election forecaster lists Senate seats held by two Democrats, Sinema as ‘toss-ups’

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has released its latest Senate ratings ahead of the 2024 elections, characterizing seats held by two Democrats as well as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) as “toss-ups.” 

The forecaster labeled the seats held by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) as “toss-ups,” along with one in Arizona held by recently turned Independent Sinema. 

Additionally, Cook labeled Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s seat in Montana, which is also being targeted by Senate Republicans, as “lean Democratic,” along with seats in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

The ratings come as Senate Republicans increasingly set their sights on incumbent Democrats in red-leaning states that former President Trump won in 2020, like Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. 

On Tuesday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee rolled out a 30-second digital ad painting Manchin as out of touch. The committee has also released a separate slate of ads urging Manchin, Brown and Tester to retire as a part of its “retire or get fired” campaign. 

Republicans also have paid close attention to Arizona after Sinema formally left the Democratic Party late last year. However, the state still stands to be an uphill climb for the GOP, given Biden’s victory in the state in 2020 and the Democrats’ statewide victories there in 2022. 

On Monday, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) announced he was jumping into the race for Sinema’s seat. No Republican candidates have entered the race yet, but Senate Democrats will be forced to decide whether to support Gallego or Sinema if she decides to seek another term. 

Updated at 9:43 a.m.