Dems hold double-digit lead on generic ballot: poll

Democrats are well-positioned for gains in the November midterm elections, according to new data from the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll that shows a double-digit preference among voters for Democrats to control the House and Senate.

Fifty-six percent of registered voters told pollsters they would rather see Democrats controlling the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections, while 55 percent of voters polled said they wanted Democrats to control the Senate.

Democrats also have a 9-point lead — 43 percent to 34 percent — when voters are asked whether they support a Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. And the Democratic Party has a slightly higher favorability mark, at 42 percent, than the Republican Party, which 38 percent of respondents viewed favorably.

“Democrats have a significant edge in the midterms as Republicans in Congress have no coherent leadership and a constituency lower than Trump’s,” said Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll Co-Director Mark Penn.  

“They have a lot of work to do in the face of Democratic progress. Voters usually prefer divided government and that still seems to be the case.”

Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the president’s party, particularly when the president’s approval rating is underwater. An analysis by the Cook Political Report last year found that the president’s party loses at least 24 seats in the House during a midterm when the president’s approval rating is under 50 percent. 

Democrats need to gain a net 23 seats in the House to take the majority. 

The new data shows Trump’s approval rating at 44 percent, with 56 percent of registered voters disapproving of his job as president. Those numbers are consistent with the Harvard/Harris poll’s March numbers, and show Trump gaining with women, young voters and evangelicals while losing ground among men and Hispanics.

The findings are similar to the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, which found Trump with an average of a 42 percent approval rating and a 55 percent disapproval rating.

By April 25, 2010, the comparable time in former President Obama’s tenure in office, his RealClearPolitics average sat at 48 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval. 

While a majority — 53 percent — believes the country is on the wrong track, a plurality — 44 percent — believes the American economy is on the right track. Majorities approve of Trump’s handling of the fight against terrorism, stimulating jobs and with the economy at large, while the president is underwater on immigration, foreign affairs and administering the government.

“Trump’s job approval has stabilized … and a solid majority approve of his handling of the economy,” Penn told The Hill.

“While Obama started high and slipped straight down over 2 years, Trump has stabilized and could see upside if he has success with North Korea or other areas.”

Voter sentiment on impeachment could be another data point that has an impact on the midterm fight, with Democratic politicians fighting over how much to press the issue on the campaign trail and in Congress.

When asked to choose between impeachment, congressional censure and no action by Congress, a plurality, 42 percent, support Congress taking no action against Trump. Forty percent back impeachment and 18 percent want Congress to pursue a censure.  

That question unsurprisingly divides on partisan lines. But among independents, 46 percent want no action from Congress, compared to 35 percent who prefer impeachment and 19 percent who want Congress to censure Trump. 

The new polling also sheds light on the favorability ratings of major politicians who will be appearing on the stump and in campaign ads this year.

Vice President Pence has the highest favorability rating of the more than a dozen politicians polled, with 41 percent of registered voters viewing him favorably and 44 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The White House has already made clear that Pence will be a centerpiece of its midterm planning, having already deployed him to West Virginia to attack Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and North Dakota to hammer Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D).

Hillary Clinton, Trump’s 2016 rival who is still being attacked by Republicans across the country, has a 39 percent favorability rating and a 54 percent unfavorable ranking. That makes her more popular than House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), another popular Republican punching bag, who has only a 31 percent approval rating.

In the Senate, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is viewed favorably by 28 percent of the sample and unfavorably by 38 percent. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the majority leader, sits below his fellow Senate leader with a 21 percent favorable rating and a 48 percent unfavorable rating.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll online survey of 1,549 registered voters was conducted April 22-24. The partisan breakdown is 37 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent independent and 4 percent other.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard/Harris Poll throughout 2018. 

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.