Campaign Report — Biden hits the road with State of the Union message

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Biden takes SOTU messages to Wisconsin, Florida

President Biden went to Wisconsin and Florida on the heels of his State of the Union (SOTU) address to spotlight what he frames as his administration’s accomplishments and draw contrasts with Republicans. The visits follow trips to Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania last week. 

The labor message: At a Laborers’ International Union of North America training center in DeForest, Wisconsin on Wednesday, Biden pointed to local projects and workforce development programs that the infrastructure law and American Rescue Plan funded. He also reiterated recent economic stats on job numbers and unemployment along with his proposal to require that construction materials for federal infrastructure projects be made in America.  

Wisconsin is one of several Rust Belt states that went from supporting Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 to supporting Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Biden narrowly won Wisconsin in 2020.  

On Medicare and Social Security: The theme of Biden’s visit to Tampa, Florida Thursday was protecting and strengthening Medicare and Social Security. Biden noted Florida has the highest percentage of seniors in the nation.  

The president highlighted a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. He also criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) – whom many anticipate will run for president in 2024 – for not expanding Medicaid in Florida under the Affordable Care Act.  

During both his Wisconsin and Florida stops, Biden criticized Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s (R) proposal to sunset all federal legislation after five years. Biden said the proposal would likely lead to drastic cuts to Medicare and Social Security. 

On Wednesday, Scott said, “In my plan, I suggested the following: All federal legislation sunsets in five years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.” Scott said, “I’ve never advocated cutting Social Security or Medicare and never would.” See more from our Alexander Bolton here. 

Our Al Weaver noted that some Republicans have distanced themselves from Scott’s proposal. 

Florida’s presidential elections tend to be close. Trump won the two most recent races after Obama won the previous two.  

Reactions: Our Mychael Schnell discussed SOTU reactions with Sarah Matthews, former deputy press secretary and special assistant to Trump, and Michael LaRosa, former press secretary to Jill Biden and special assistant to President Biden.  

Matthews said Biden’s touting of accomplishments was “maybe just a little bit out of touch. I understand wanting to explain to the American people what your accomplishments are … but I think that right now, a lot of people feel as if they’re not feeling the effect of that legislation that he’s put in place.” 

LaRosa said, “Sarah’s right – people are not feeling the economy. … If you’re not feeling a healthy economy … chances are, you may vote a different way.” LaRosa compared Biden’s situation to Obama’s, saying the Affordable Care Act didn’t improve public opinion until people started feeling its effects in 2012, and Obama won reelection. 

Chicago’s mayoral race to the runoff 

A recent poll from Chicago’s mayoral race shows three candidates tied within the margin of error: Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (D-Ill.) (20 percent), former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas (18 percent) and incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot (17 percent). 

The WBEZ/Chicago Sun-Times/Telemundo Chicago/NBC5 poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy.  

There’s been quite a bit of variation between polls in the nine-candidate race, but a couple somewhat consistent trends have emerged. In none of five polls aggregated by Ballotpedia has any candidate topped 25 percent, meaning an April 4 runoff is highly likely (a candidate would need a majority of the vote to win outright on Feb. 28).  

Who the two runoff candidates may be, however, is up in the air. Garcia, Lightfoot, Vallas, Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson and frequent candidate Willie Wilson have all placed in the double digits in several polls. 

Lightfoot defeated a number of high-profile candidates in 2019. Vallas and Wilson also ran for mayor that year. Our Caroline Vakil wrote that Lightfoot’s “image among the electorate, as well as state and city officials alike, has been painted as combative as the city grapples with key issues of crime and public safety.”

Lightfoot has defended her record as her challengers pitch themselves as better alternatives. See more of Caroline’s race coverage here and here.  

DIG DEEPER WITH REPORTING FROM THE HILL 

Check out the following in-depth reporting on campaigns and elections from The Hill this past week. 

• South Carolina emerges as ground zero for possible GOP presidential hopefuls– Caroline Vakil 
• DeSantis edges closer to 2024 decision– Amie Parnes and Max Greenwood  
• Six progressive takeaways from Biden’s State of the Union speech – Hannah Trudo  
• New Hampshire Democrats in a ‘bind’ over primary election move– Julia Manchester 
• Why Tim Scott could be the only senator to run for president in 2024 – Al Weaver 
• Republicans turn to establishment candidates after midterm failures – Max Greenwood and Julia Manchester 
• Eight Republicans who could challenge Trump in 2024– Caroline Vakil 
•  Kemp’s political clout grows ahead of 2024– Max Greenwood and Julia Manchester 
• Florida Democrats fight to reclaim political relevance– Max Greenwood and Amie Parnes 

WITH DEM MAJORITY RESTORED, WHAT’S NEXT FOR PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE 

Democrats won three special state House elections in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, restoring the majority Democrats won in November and then quickly lost due to three vacancies. In the meantime, several conflicts have left the chamber adjourned and without operating rules.  

The House risked an impasse over the Speaker election last month with Republicans holding a small temporary majority. Democrats and 16 Republicans elected consensus candidate Mark Rozzi (D) as Speaker. Rep. Joanna McClinton (D), whom Democrats initially planned to elect Speaker, supported Rozzi.  

The bipartisan cooperation unraveled within days amid conflict around operating rules, constitutional amendments and the fact that Rozzi didn’t change his party affiliation to Independent. Rozzi set up a bipartisan workgroup and embarked on a listening tour around the state. Read more about the conflict here. 

What’s next: Democrats will have a 102-100 majority when the session reconvenes on Feb. 21. How the operating rules negotiation shakes out, whether Rozzi remains Speaker and what if any constitutional amendments make the ballot this year are open questions.  

McClinton told The Philadelphia Tribune Tuesday that “there is definitely a path for me to be Speaker. … It’s all about our caucus deciding what is best for it and what it wants.” 

In an interview with The Associated Press on Jan. 30, Rozzi said, “I know how to count votes” and “at the end of the day she [McClinton] still has to get the votes to become speaker of the House.” 

Constitutional amendments lawmakers want to get on the ballot this year (which would require their passage in both chambers) are a major topic of debate in the legislature. Republicans are pushing amendments to institute a voter ID requirement and give the legislature more power over regulations. Rozzi has long worked for an amendment to create a window for survivors of childhood sexual abuse to file suits.  

The GOP-controlled Senate passed a bill including all three amendments last month. Rozzi and several other lawmakers want to consider the statute of limitations amendment separately from Republicans’ priorities.  

But first, the House needs rules. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.