GOP polling shows Jim Justice could beat Joe Manchin in 2024 Senate race

New Republican polling shows that Gov. Jim Justice (R) stands the best chance to beat Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in West Virginia’s 2024 Senate race.

Polling commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) — a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — and obtained by The Hill showed that in three hypothetical matchups between Manchin and several possible Republican challengers, Justice was the only GOP challenger listed who won more support than Manchin among likely registered voters polled.

The poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group and first reported by Politico, showed 52 percent of likely registered voters supporting Justice in the Senate race, compared to 42 percent who supported Manchin and another 5 percent who said they were undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup between Manchin and declared challenger Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), Mooney received 40 percent support, while Manchin received 55 percent support and 5 percent said they were undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup between Manchin and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), Manchin received 52 percent support, compared to 42 percent who said they supported the Republican attorney general. 

The polling memo to SLF also noted that Manchin’s approval and favorability ratings in the state were underwater at 39 percent and 44 percent respectively. The poll also found that close to half of voters from his own party disapproved of his job as senator.

“Governor Justice maintains a lead over Manchin in every media market across the state and captures fifty-eight percent (58%) of the vote among registered Independent voters, which is 18 points higher than any of the other potential Republican candidates,” the polling memo said. 

“Justice also receives twenty-six percent (26%) of the vote among registered Democrats, 10 points higher than any other potential Republican candidate tested in this survey.”

The polling comes as Manchin has not yet said whether he plans to run for his seat again in 2024, and he is only one of three red state Senate Democrats who will be crucial to helping the party retain its majority in the next election cycle. West Virginia will be one of Republicans’ top targets going into 2024.

Mooney has already declared his candidacy in the race, while Justice said in a local interview last month that he was “very, very, very seriously considering it.” Morrisey, who ran and lost against Manchin in 2018, has also said he’s considering running.

The Tarrance Group poll was conducted between Feb. 5-7 with 609 likely registered voters surveyed and an oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.