Election handicapper moves GOP leader’s race to ‘toss-up’

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Washington’s 5th District, held by House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R), from leaning Republican to a toss-up.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted that McMorris Rodgers’s race was one of eight that that had shifted towards the Democrats’ side in the latest edition of the website’s House election forecast.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes. Explanations coming in tomorrow’s issue (2 of 2)

Lamb vs. Rothfus (PA-17) Toss-up > Leans D
PA-7 Open (Dent, R) Toss-up > Leans D
J. Herrera Beutler (R, WA-3) Safe R > Leans R
C. McMorris Rodgers (R, WA-5) Leans R > Toss-up

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) August 8, 2018

McMorris Rodgers’s campaign did not immediately return a request for comment from The Hill on the rating shift. The district, which the congresswoman has held since 2005 and won by nearly 20 points in 2016, once voted to oust a sitting House Speaker, Rep. Tom Foley (D-Wash.), in 1994.

Another race that tilted in the Democrats’ favor, according to Kondik, is the race in Pennsylvania’s 17th District, where newly-elected Rep. Conor Lamb (D) faces a challenge from Keith Rothfus (R). That race has shifted from toss-up to lean Democratic, according to the forecaster.

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Another positive sign for Democrats is Pennsylvania’s 7th District, currently held by retiring Rep. Charlie Dent (R), which Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rates as leans Democratic after previously rating it as a toss-up.

Democrats are hoping to secure a net gain of 23 seats in the House and two in the Senate to retake both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections.

A recent generic ballot poll showed Democrats with as much as a 12-point advantage for control of the House with less than 100 days left until voters head to the polls.