Marquette poll: Wisconsin Senate race dead heat between Baldwin, Vukmir

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads Republican challenger Wisconsin state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) by two percentage points, according to a new poll from Marquette University Law School.

Among likely voters polled, 49 percent said they would support Baldwin, while 47 percent said they would support Vukmir.

That gap expands, however, among register voters. Fifty-one percent of registered voters who were polled said they would support Baldwin, while 43 percent said they would vote for Vukmir.

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Vukmir won the Republican primary in August, defeating former marine and Democrat Kevin Nicholson.

Vukmir was backed by Republican establishment in Wisconsin. The state GOP overwhelmingly voted in May to endorse her over Nicholson, who largely campaigned as an outsider.

Baldwin is running for her second term and is one of 10 Democratic senators seeking reelection in a state Trump won.

While the Marquette poll shows a dead heat race between the two candidates, various polling data point to a range of closeness between Baldwin’s and Vukmir’s campaigns. The Cook Political Report lists the race as “Likely D.”

Baldwin may be buoyed by President Trump’s underwater approval rating in the state. The Marquette poll found that 45 percent of registered voters polled approve of Trump’s performance, while 51 percent disapprove. 

Vukmir tied herself heavily to the president in her primary race and received his endorsement following her victory over Nicholson.

Congratulations to Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin on your great win last night. You beat a very tough and good competitor and will make a fantastic Senator after winning in November against someone who has done very little. You have my complete and total Endorsement!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 15, 2018

The Marquette University Law School interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by phone from August 15-19. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.