Republicans are facing an uphill climb in the Wisconsin Senate race after Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) decided against a bid next year, hurting their chances to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).
Gallagher was considered a top Republican pick to challenge the incumbent Baldwin, who is seeking a third term next year, and his decision not to run has some in the party worried about their prospects in what is expected to be a tough election.
Despite the state becoming more of a battleground state in recent years, Baldwin has been an extraordinarily tough opponent for the GOP, having won reelection by more than 10 points only two years after former President Trump carried the state.
“Tammy Baldwin is good. Republicans have always underestimated her in the past, kind of the same way Democrats underestimate Ron Johnson,” one Wisconsin-based GOP operative told The Hill, adding that she’ll be “very well-funded.”
With Gallagher stepping aside, a number of other Republican names have been floated, headlined by a pair of potential self-funders — former hedge fund manager Eric Hovde and businessman Scott Mayer — and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.). Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke has continued to tease a potential bid.
Given the likely expensive battle, a self-funder is attractive to the GOP for a number of reasons. According to a second Wisconsin-based GOP operative, Hovde, who lost the chance to face Baldwin in 2012 after narrowly falling in the GOP primary to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, has moved closer to a bid in recent months by making calls and trying to assemble a team ahead of a potential run.
Sources also view him as formidable due to his straight-talking nature, which isn’t unlike that of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who won a third term last year. The second operative noted that Hovde has floated spending at least $20 million out of his own pocket.
“He’s capable,” the first GOP operative said. “He certainly has financial resources, and it depends on how much he’s willing to spend. His major advantage he has is he’s run for statewide office and he knows what it takes. … He knows it’s a full commitment to do.”
Meanwhile, questions surround the possible candidacy of Mayer, who runs a staffing company based out of Milwaukee. He said recently that he hopes to decide on a run by Labor Day but remains a major unknown to the electorate and to Wisconsin politicos.
“I don’t know him that well either,” Johnson told The Hill.
The second operative noted that Mayer has truly come “out of the woodwork” in recent months and will have much to do in order to boost his name recognition in a primary field that could include Hovde, who has been on a statewide ballot, and members of the Wisconsin congressional delegation or state legislature. While that can be beneficial in a race, as it was for Johnson in his 2010 victory, strategists argue that it could be too much to ask.
The one-two step of Gallagher and Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) both remaining in the House has greatly increased the chances of Mayer getting in the race, the second operative said.
As for Tiffany, he is viewed as one of the sharper political and policy minds in the Wisconsin GOP ranks. However, running against one or more self-funders could be an issue if he decides to forego running for reelection in his deep-red district.
“If he runs, he has some name ID and has his finger on the pulse of the base,” the second operative said. “He could have a path … but the issue is that he hasn’t built up a major fundraising apparatus yet.”
Tiffany would also have to give up his safely red seat to potentially take on a powerful Democratic incumbent in Baldwin.
“I don’t know if Tiffany will take the jump. He has the same risk Gallagher would have had, which is he has to give up his seat to do it,” said Republican strategist Bill McCoshen.
Wisconsin Democrats, on the other hand, appear to be hoping for a run from Clarke, who is known for his past inflammatory statements and support of former President Trump.
“The Wisconsin GOP is staring down another messy, chaotic, intraparty primary, with Sheriff David Clarke leading the pack,” the party said in a statement.
Clarke is continuing to garner attention as he publicly weighs jumping into the race. Last week, he touted a survey from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling that showed him leading a hypothetical primary field with 40 percent support. The poll, which was conducted before Gallagher took himself out of the running, showed the congressman at 20 percent support. Tiffany came in at 10 percent, and Hovde at 3 percent.
But national Republicans say they aren’t holding their breath over a potential Clarke candidacy.
“He’s making a lot of noise, but we’ll see if he actually gets into the race,” said one national Republican strategist.
Regardless, national Democrats remain bullish about their chances in the state, especially in a presidential year with an incumbent senator who has proven to be tough to oust.
“She just connects with the people of Wisconsin in every way, and especially with working people,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who served as chair of the Senate Democratic campaign arm during Baldwin’s 2018 reelection battle. “Everything she does is looking out for working people in Wisconsin. That’s what drives her here; that’s what motivates her here. And I think the people of Wisconsin know it.”
Democrats also point to statewide successes in the state’s Supreme Court race earlier this year, which saw liberals take control of the court for the first time in 15 years. Justice-elect Janet Protasiewicz made abortion access a key issue in her campaign, which Baldwin and Democrats are expected to do again next year.
But Republicans push back on the notion that the state’s Supreme Court race is an indication of what statewide races will look like next year.
“It was the biggest issue in the Supreme Court race, but the new liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court could make it a moot issue by 2024,” McCoshen said.
“I think we nominated the weakest of the potential candidates,” he added, referring to Protasiewicz’s conservative opponent in the Supreme Court race. “I don’t think we’ll do the same thing for the Senate race.”