Five key political races to watch in 2023

National attention might be focused on the 2024 elections, but several notable races are taking place this year that could have implications for next year’s contests and beyond.

Three states are holding off-year elections for governor this year, while a few are holding legislative elections.

While all three states with gubernatorial elections this year — Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi — are generally conservative states, Democrats currently hold the office in two of the states.

Meanwhile, the results of Virginia’s legislative elections could determine major policies for the state for the next two years and potentially spur an additional presidential candidate, and Ohio appears to be headed for a vote on whether to protect abortion rights.

Here are the races to keep an eye on in 2023:

Louisiana gubernatorial race

Four years ago, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) became the first Democratic governor in the state to be reelected to a second term since the 1970s. But, he has reached his term limit.

The state’s electoral system features a jungle primary in which all candidates appear on the same ballot during the Oct. 14 primary race, regardless of party affiliation. If one candidate wins an outright majority on the ballot, they will be declared the winner.

If no candidate secures a majority, the top two performers will advance to a general election on Nov. 18.

Democrats seem to be facing an uphill battle as they try to hold on to the governor’s mansion.

A half dozen Republicans have declared their candidacies for the office, but state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) appears to be coalescing support around his campaign. He has received endorsements from former President Trump, a few GOP congressmen from the state and the state Republican Party.

Shawn Wilson appears to be the top choice for the Democrats. He served as the transportation secretary for Edwards’ administration and has support from the governor, local and state officials and state party leaders.

Polling has shown Landry and Wilson at least somewhat close to each other in the multi-candidate race. But Landry has led in almost every public poll released on the race, and an independent pollster said he appears to be in a “commanding position” to succeed Edwards.

Kentucky gubernatorial race

Incumbent Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) won a victory against his widely unpopular Republican predecessor, Matt Bevin, in 2019 by less than half a percentage point and is running for a second term.

Beshear has enjoyed strong favorability ratings as one of the most popular governors in the country, with almost nine out of 10 Democrats and nearly half of Republicans saying in a Morning Consult poll earlier this year that they approve of his job performance.

But the incumbent is facing some headwinds that could be larger than him. He leads a strongly conservative state and is one of only a few Democratic governors leading a state that former President Trump won in the 2020 election.

He is running against Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R), the first Black man to serve in that position. Cameron once served as an aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and has tied himself closely to Trump.

Recent Republican-leaning polls have shown the two candidates tied at 47 percent each and Beshear with a 2-point lead, but with 12 percent undecided. 

The outcome of the election hinges on either Beshear’s popularity or Kentucky’s trends and advantage for the GOP.

Mississippi gubernatorial race 

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is running for reelection to a second term in office, seeking to extend continuous GOP success in governor’s races. A Democrat has not been elected as governor of Mississippi since 1999.

The primaries for the race will be held next month. Reeves has some competition for the Republican nomination, but polls have shown him with large leads.

Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District Brandon Presley appears to be the likely Democratic nominee, facing no major opposition and bringing in endorsements from Democrats nationwide and in the state, including Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.).

Presley may be facing a challenge in trying to defeat Reeves in the deep-red state but might have some reasons to be hopeful about his chances. The second cousin of legendary rock ’n’ roll star Elvis Presley, he acknowledged his name recognition from his family connection during his campaign announcement video, saying “My cousin grew up just down the road in Tupelo. You’ve probably heard of him.”

One poll in late April from a Democratic-leaning pollster found Presley trailing Reeves by 3 points — 47 percent to 44 percent.

Another Mississippi Today-Siena College poll from earlier in the month had Reeves ahead by 11 points. But that poll also had Reeves as only being viewed favorably by 42 percent of registered voters, a possible opportunity for Presley.

Virginia legislative elections

All 40 seats in the Virginia Senate and all 100 seats in the state House of Delegates are up for election this year. Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the Senate with 22 of the 40 seats, while Republicans narrowly control the House with 50 seats to the Democrats’ 46. Four House seats are currently vacant.

Whichever party wins control of the two houses will be key to determining the success of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) agenda for the rest of his term as governor. Democrats’ narrow control of the state Senate since clinching the majority in the 2019 elections has restricted Youngkin’s scope as governor despite the GOP holding the House.

Abortion rights is one of the key issues in Virginia’s legislature and at the ballot box.

Youngkin has called for a 15-week ban on abortion to roll back access from the current law, which permits the procedure up to the end of the second trimester. Senate Democrats blocked the proposal in a vote in January.

The outcome of the race could also influence whether Youngkin joins the large field running for the Republican presidential nomination. He said in May that he would not join the 2024 presidential campaign trail “this year” and would instead focus on campaigning for Virginia Republican House and Senate candidates.

But he did not rule out running next year and has given mixed signals on his possible presidential prospects.

Ohio abortion ballot measure

A vote on whether the Ohio Constitution should protect abortion rights appears to be headed to the ballot in November now that abortion rights groups seem to have gathered enough signatures on a petition for it.

The groups said earlier this week that they submitted more than 700,000 signatures on the petition, significantly more than the 413,446 needed for a measure to be placed on the ballot. The Ohio secretary of state must certify the signatures to confirm no duplicates or other errors are present by July 25. 

The measure would call for the state constitution to be amended to create a “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” with “reasonable limits,” essentially creating a standard similar to when Roe v. Wade was in place.

The Ohio legislature passed a “heartbeat” bill to ban abortion after about six weeks soon after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer. That law was temporarily paused last fall amid ongoing legal challenges.

But the effort to amend the constitution could face a challenge with another ballot measure that will come up in August. Republican lawmakers have pushed for a ballot measure that would raise the threshold for Ohio voters to approve a constitutional amendment from 50 percent to 60 percent.

Abortion rights proponents have argued that the effort is specifically designed to try to prevent the abortion measure from passing, making the August vote a proxy for the potential November one.