Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted eight House races toward Democrats and two in favor of Republicans with 14 days to go before the midterm elections.
The nonpartisan election forecaster projected Democrats will have an edge in key swing districts following the party’s massive fundraising haul in the third quarter of this year.
{mosads}Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), who is facing off against independent candidate Alyse Galvin, moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after a recent poll showed the challenger within 2 points of the incumbent.
Florida’s 6th, 15th and 27th congressional districts — all are open seats — shifted toward Democrats, moving from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” “lean Republican” to “toss-up” and “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” respectively.
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Debbie Lesko (R), changed from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” Lesko, who won the special election to replace former Rep. Trent Franks (R) earlier this year, is looking at a rematch with Hiral Tipirneni (D), who came up short in the special election.
Tipirneni more than doubled Lesko’s fundraising in the third quarter.
Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) — a member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee — is aiming to retain the 23rd Congressional District seat, which Cook moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” Democrat Tracy Mitrano brought in $855,000 last quarter and has been going after the incumbent for his role in crafting the 2017 GOP tax bill that President Trump signed into law in December.
In Oklahoma, where Rep. Steve Russell (R) is running against former Democratic House staffer Kendra Horn, Cook moved the fifth district from solid Republican to likely Republican after Horn significantly outraised Russell.
Rep. Pete Olsen (R-Texas) saw his race against Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni go from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” which Cook attributed to the shift in the 22nd Congressional District’s demographics.
While the majority of races were shifted in favor of Democrats, Rep. John Carter (R-Texas), who represents the Lone Star State’s 31st District, went from “lean Republican” to “likely Republican.” Rep. Mike Bost (R) of the 12th Congressional District in Illinois moved from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” in his race against moderate Democrat Brendan Kelly.