Poll: Democrats hold single-digit leads in Ohio

Democratic candidates in Ohio’s senate and gubernatorial races hold single-digit leads against their Republican opponents, according to an Emerson College poll released Monday. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is running for a third term in the Senate, has a six-point edge among likely voters against Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio). About 49 percent of likely voters support the incumbent, while 43 percent support Renacci. About six percent of likely voters say they are undecided. 

{mosads}Brown is one of 10 Democratic senators defending seats in states President Trump won in 2016. Trump won Ohio by about eight points.

Trump endorsed Renacci early in the race, tweeting in April, “.@JimRenacci has worked so hard on Tax Reductions, Illegal Immigration, the Border and Crime. I need Jim very badly to help our agenda and to keep MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He will be a fantastic Senator for the Great State of Ohio, and has my full endorsement!” He campaigned with the congressman earlier this month. 

.@JimRenacci has worked so hard on Tax Reductions, Illegal Immigration, the Border and Crime. I need Jim very badly to help our agenda and to keep MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He will be a fantastic Senator for the Great State of Ohio, and has my full endorsement!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 24, 2018

But the president’s endorsement may not end up helping his chosen candidate. Trump’s favorability rating is underwater with likely Ohio voters, with 47 percent having a favorable view of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. Renacci has cast himself as a staunch ally of the president.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Likely D,” while an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics has Brown up 13.5 points.

Meanwhile, in the race for The Buckeye State’s governor’s mansion, Democratic candidate Richard Cordray has a narrow three-point against Republican Mike DeWine.

About 49 percent of likely Ohio voters support Cordray, the former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under the Obama administration, while 46 percent support DeWine, Ohio’s attorney general.

DeWine and Cordray are running to replace the term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R), who ran for president in 2016.

Cordray enjoys a comfortable net-positive favorability rating, with 47 percent of likely Ohio voters having a favorable view of him while 36 percent have an unfavorable view. DeWine’s favorability rating is net-negative, with 41 percent of likely voters having a favorable view of him and 44 percent having an unfavorable view.

Trump also endorsed DeWine, tweeting in May after the Republican primary, “Congratulations to Mike Dewine on his big win in the Great State of Ohio. He will be a great Governor with a heavy focus on HealthCare and Jobs.  His Socialist opponent in November should not do well, a big failure in last job!

Congratulations to Mike Dewine on his big win in the Great State of Ohio. He will be a great Governor with a heavy focus on HealthCare and Jobs. His Socialist opponent in November should not do well, a big failure in last job!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 9, 2018

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up,” while an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics has Cordray up 2.7 points.

Should Brown win reelection and Cordray replace Kasich, it could represent a renewed strength in states broke from tradition by supporting Trump in 2016. 

Emerson college surveyed 566 likely Ohio voters from Oct. 26-28. The poll has a credibility interval of +/- 4.3 percent.