Trump narrowly leads Biden in new CNN poll

Former President Trump leads President Biden by 4 percentage points in a hypothetical rematch between the two exactly a year out from the 2024 election, according to a CNN poll released Tuesday.

The poll found Trump polling at 49 percent to Biden’s 45 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical match-up between the 2020 election competitors.

Fifty-one percent of voters said there is no chance they will vote for Biden, the poll found, and 48 percent said there is no chance they will vote for Trump.

In a potentially troubling sign for Biden, the poll found that 45 percent of independent voters said they would back Trump, compared to 41 percent who said they would support Biden. The poll also found Biden polling weaker with key demographic groups that helped propel him to the White House, including Black and Latino voters.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, surveyed 1,514 people and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Tuesday’s CNN poll is the latest poll to flash warning signs for Biden in a potential rematch with Trump.

A New York Times/Siena College poll found Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, leading Biden in five out of six critical battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 race. The poll also found Biden losing support among young voters and Black voters compared to 2020.

A CBS News poll released Sunday also found Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical match-up, 51 percent to 48 percent.

The White House and Biden and campaign have sought to tamp down any anxiety around the president’s concerning polling numbers, arguing that the election is still a year away and that polls consistently underestimated his support in 2020 and in the 2022 midterms.

They have also noted that then-President Obama faced similar headlines in 2011, when polls showed him trailing GOP rival Mitt Romney, before Obama ultimately won a second term in 2012.

Biden’s campaign sent a memo to news outlets Tuesday asserting that there’s disparity in the way the media has covered polling so far.

“Despite the ‘hair-on-fire’, ‘sky-is-falling’ tone we’ve seen from media coverage over the last few days, political predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later,” Biden-Harris 2024 communications director Michael Tyler said in the memo.