Modeling finds Trump taking back four states, beating Biden in electoral college

Stack Data Strategy is projecting that former President Trump would beat President Joe Biden for the presidency if the election were held today.

Stack published a polling model on Monday that found Biden wining the popular vote but losing the electoral college by 292 votes for Trump, to 246 votes for Biden.

It projected that Biden would lose four states he won in 2020: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.

It projected Biden as the winner in two other swing states of Michigan and Nevada.

“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” Head of Stack Data Strategy Joe Bedell said in a statement.

The research polled about 15,000 respondents from across the United States between Oct. 12 and Nov. 3. The researchers then used the respondents’ answers to power a model that projected the 2024 electoral map based on the survey.

In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading by 2.3 percent and in Georgia, is leading by 3.3 percent, according to the polls by Stack. In Arizona and Wisconsin, Trump has less than a two percent lead over Biden. 

The poll still projects Biden to narrowly win Michigan and Nevada.

The poll found that if Democrats put forward a different candidate to Biden, like Vice President Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Trump would win by a larger margin. 

“Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin,” Bedell said. 

Similarly, if Republicans nominated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their candidate, Biden would handily win reelection with 359 electoral votes to DeSantis’s 179 votes, the poll found.

While Trump remains the frontrunner in the GOP primary, DeSantis has remained a distant second-place candidate since launching his campaign. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has been seen as a rising GOP candidate.

This news also comes as a separate poll brought negative news for the Biden campaign. 

A poll by Global Strategy Group and the Financial Times found that just 14 percent of respondents said there were better off financially since Biden has become president while 55 percent say they are worse off. 

Nearly half of respondents said that Biden’s economic policies have hurt the economy, while just 26 percent said they help. Sixty-one percent say that they disapprove of the way Biden has handled the economy. 

Overall, 59 percent of respondents disapproved of the way Biden is handling his job as president. 

The Global Strategy Group and Financial Times poll was based on 1,004 interviews between Nov. 2 and Nov. 7 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.