Haley looks to rebound after lukewarm debate reception

Nikki Haley is seeking to rebound after a debate performance in Alabama that drew a mixed reception from Republicans a little more than a month out from the Iowa caucuses. 

Haley went into the debate, which was hosted by The Hill’s sister news organization NewsNation, with high expectations after several strong debate performances gave her a burst of momentum in recent months. It was immediately clear during the Wednesday night event that the former U.N. ambassador was the candidate to take on, with rivals — including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) — hurling attacks at her right out of the gate as they vie to be the main alternative to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary.

While observers said Haley didn’t have a terrible showing in Tuscaloosa, Ala., many said she failed to stand out like she did in previous debates, potentially threatening her standing as she and DeSantis look to shore up the most support among Republican voters wanting to move on from Trump.

Republican strategist Rina Shah said the Wednesday night debate was Haley’s “weakest of the four” and “didn’t tell us anything” or significantly move the needle for any candidate.

The race is still “a coin toss” heading into Iowa, Shah argued.

DeSantis had long been seen as the party’s best Trump alternative, but Haley has surged in recent weeks, threatening the Florida governor’s runner-up status. Haley has been gaining on DeSantis in Iowa and has far surpassed him in New Hampshire, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages of each state.

That’s why some were looking to the fourth debate as a moment of truth for Haley, but even strategists who thought she did well in Tuscaloosa argued she didn’t notch any huge gains. The debate wasn’t seen as a major moment for any of her rivals, either.

“This is a debate getting closer and closer to the Iowa caucuses, and Nikki Haley didn’t have her best debate. She didn’t have a very good debate at all,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide. 

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said Haley “didn’t score any major wins” but “wasn’t hemorrhaging, either.”

Haley’s campaign maintained she left the event in a strong position, pointing to a CNN focus group of Iowa voters that voted Haley as the winner. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Haley was the most searched-for candidate on Google during the debate.

“With another winning debate performance under her belt, we’re continuing to build on Nikki’s momentum,” a campaign spokesperson told The Hill. “Nikki is in second place in all three early states and the only candidate on the debate stage who is on the rise.”

On Wednesday night, Haley was a frequent target of her rivals on stage, which Bonjean said was a clear indicator they viewed her as the front-runner among them. And the former South Carolina governor did have her memorable moments.

“I love all the attention, fellas. Thank you for that,” Haley quipped at one point during the ongoing attacks.

In another viral moment, entrepreneur and frequent Haley antagonist Vivek Ramaswamy held up a notepad with “NIKKI = CORRUPT” written on it. Haley didn’t take the bait.

“It’s not worth my time to respond to him,” she said. 

But Haley also faded into the background more than she had in the previous debates. In perhaps the most talked-about moment of the Tuscaloosa event, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) spoke up in defense of Haley as Ramaswamy attacked her, calling the entrepreneur “the most obnoxious blowhard in America.”

Strategists were split on whether disengaging worked in Haley’s favor. 

Republican strategist Alex Conant said the move was “smart.” Though Haley appeared to benefit from spats with Ramaswamy in earlier debates, Conant noted, she “has nothing to gain by engaging” at this point in the race. 

“She came into this debate with a huge bullseye on her back, which wasn’t there in the previous debates,” Conant said. “It’s very different being the underdog attacking a front-runner, than being center stage and taking all incoming.”

Bonjean said it seemed like Haley was “trying to look more like a leader” by not stooping to Ramaswamy’s level, but he argued aggressiveness helped Haley in previous debates. 

A more reserved stance is “a great strategy when you truly are the front-runner. But she’s not. She’s a front-runner of the second tier,” Bonjean said.

But he also argued Haley wasn’t hurt by the exchange.

“Would it have been great to have had her knock it out of the park with some really crisp and clear sound bites?” he said. “Yes. But there isn’t much damage done either, especially in an environment where Trump is still 30 points ahead.” 

Shah said she was expecting Haley to keep up her “attack dog” status from the first three debates. 

“She did not bring the attack dog … and that was disappointing for me because I think she could have punched back instead of saying ‘he’s not worth my time’ and staying silent,” Shah said.

Darling said he thought Haley’s decision to “just let it go” was “a big mistake.”

A 538-Washington Post-Ipsos poll of potential Republican primary and caucusgoers who watched the debate found most thought DeSantis “performed best” Wednesday night, with 30 percent. Haley was 7 points behind, with 23 percent picking her as the fourth debate’s winner.

That’s essentially a swap from the last debate, when 34 percent of the Republican debate watchers thought Haley did best and only 23 percent picked DeSantis. 

Post-debate reports from The Guardian, Fox News and NewsNation, which hosted the debate, found no clear consensus on the winner. The New York Times’s columnists and contributors, who had rated Haley best in the previous debates, favored Christie this time around. 

In recent weeks, Haley has scored backing from Americans for Prosperity Action, the conservative network led by billionaire Charles Koch, and a donation from Democratic billionaire Reid Hoffman. 

Shah noted Haley’s new donors and heightened expectations after her surges from prior debates likely heaped pressure on her.

“How do you keep the momentum going?” Shah asked.

Bonjean also stressed the difficulty of gaining ground in a field where Trump still holds a commanding lead, and said Haley is the only candidate with “a prayer of really mixing it up” with the former president. 

Haley and DeSantis both would benefit from candidates like Ramaswamy and Christie to start dropping out, strategists noted.

Many in the party have particularly questioned why Christie, lagging in the polls, is staying in the race. He’s brushed off suggestions that voters consolidate their support behind either his campaign or Haley’s — though many are hoping the field will winnow quickly so that support can build behind a top Trump challenger and make the race more competitive. 

“The race for second is important,” Mackowiak, one of the GOP strategists, said. “I don’t think there are going to be three tickets out of Iowa this time; I think there are going to be two. And so who finishes second between Haley and DeSantis is going to be important.”