Trump leads Biden by 2 points in hypothetical rematch: Survey

Former President Trump would hold a slight edge over President Biden in the 2024 election if the pair rematched at the ballot box, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump holds a 2-point lead on Biden nationally, 38 percent to 36 percent.

But, as both candidates struggle in key issue areas, third party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. also threatens to shake up results and ensure that the 2024 race will be a close one. With Kennedy included, Trump’s lead over the sitting president expands to five points — 36 percent to 31 percent — with the independent candidate picking up 16 percent support.

That breaks from prior polling, which found Kennedy more popular with Trump supporters than Biden’s. A former Democrat, Kennedy has attracted a base of bipartisan, outsider support with a campaign based on anti-establishment policy, including anti-vaccine conspiracies. 

According to the poll, Biden struggles with policy on the economy, crime and immigration — key issues Republicans have campaigned on in recent cycles. Voters have also consistently questioned Biden’s age.

While either party front-runner would be the oldest president ever, Biden, at 81, is four years older than Trump.

Just under half of respondents, about 45 percent, said Trump would better handle both the economy and crime, while only about a third sided with Biden on those issues.

Trump, on the other hand, struggles with a wide range of legal woes. He faces multiple criminal trials in the coming months, including a key federal case over his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots and efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, and another 2020 election subversion case in Georgia. 

Those trials could doom Trump if he is convicted, the poll found, with about 31 percent of Republican voters saying they would not back the former president if a jury found him guilty of a crime.

He also struggles with abortion policy, where voters sided with Biden by a margin of 44 percent to 29 percent.

While polling suggests a close race, Biden does hold an advantage in key swing states. In the seven states that most closely decided the 2020 election — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan — Biden had a 4-point lead among those who said they will vote.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed about 4,400 people over the course of the last week, with a margin of error of about 2 percentage points.