Vulnerable House Republicans are walking a tightrope after voting this week in favor of launching an impeachment inquiry into President Biden — a move that could risk their election chances in districts the president won in 2020.
The 17 House Republicans in swing districts last week stuck together to pass the vote along party lines, with all Democrats opposed, to formalize the inquiry that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) initially announced in September.
The potentially at-risk Republicans are now stressing the difference between launching an investigation and voting for impeachment itself.
“That doesn’t mean we have high crimes and misdemeanors,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a moderate representing a swing district, said ahead of the vote, explaining his rationale for supporting the inquiry. “We may not ever. But let’s get the facts, and we’ll go from there.”
The vote will give House Republicans greater legal authority to investigate Hunter Biden and his father, President Biden, but it required votes that are sure to be turned into campaign ads against vulnerable members.
Democrats only need to win back a handful of seats to win the majority in 2024.
New York GOP strategist Jay Townsend said the vote could be “very dangerous” for Republican members in Biden districts in the Empire State.
Some of those members were already in trouble after the New York Court of Appeals ruled Tuesday that the state’s congressional map must be redrawn for 2024. The court directed an independent bipartisan commission to redraw a map set by a special master that had given Republicans some more favorable districts.
“It really wouldn’t take too much to mess several of them up,” Townsend said. “It may take a hard-to-explain vote even harder to explain in a jurisdiction that has just become more Democratic.”
Five of the 17 House Republicans in districts Biden won are from New York: Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams. Former New York Rep. George Santos (R) also represented a Biden district until he was expelled from Congress earlier this month. A February special election will fill his seat.
The other House Republicans in Biden-won districts are Bacon and Reps. David Schweikert (Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), John Duarte (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.), Mike Garcia (Calif.), Young Kim (Calif.), Michelle Steel (Calif.), Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jen Kiggans (Va.).
McCarthy had previously avoided a vote on launching an inquiry because of the reluctance of such members to take it.
But there has been a growing willingness on the part even of vulnerable Republicans to launch the inquiry amid complaints from GOP lawmakers that the White House is not providing sufficient information to its requests.
GOP lawmakers backing the inquiry have leaned on such arguments to explain their votes.
In a Wednesday night interview with NewsNation’s Dan Abrams, Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who had previously opposed launching an inquiry, said he’d voted “yes” even though he had not seen evidence of high crimes or misdemeanors.
He did so because he wanted GOP investigators to secure more information from the White House.
Republican strategist David Capen said Biden-district Republicans can make that arguments to voters who question the vote.
“I think those Republicans that are in districts that may lean towards Biden can have the assurance knowing that this impeachment inquiry is just that — an inquiry. It’s not the impeachment vote itself. There’s no predetermined outcome. It’s simply a legal process that Congress is utilizing to enhance their information,” Capen said.
Republicans also have to worry about primary challenges. Townsend said that could be a factor for New York members, before adding that “some of this stuff is really hard to explain in a general election.”
Democrats were quick to slam the inquiry as politicized in the lead-up to and aftermath of the vote.
The Biden-Harris campaign said in a statement Tuesday that the inquiry is a “nakedly transparent ploy by House MAGA Republicans to boost Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.” It pointed to comments Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) reportedly made last month that insufficient evidence existed to proceed with an inquiry.
“What changed? The only branch of government MAGA Republicans control is following through on Donald Trump’s promise to use the levers of government to enact political retribution on his enemies,” the statement reads.
Trump has called on congressional Republicans to move ahead with the impeachment process.
Some Republicans pointed to polling that has shown most Americans believe Biden has done some illegal or unethical action to back up the party’s reasoning for launching the inquiry.
Arizona-based GOP strategist Brady Smith noted that polls have shown a majority of voters believe President Biden was at least aware of his son’s business dealings.
“I get that this is not exactly a tit-for-tat given the business dealings versus the recent Hunter indictments being tax-related, but that all kind of gets muddied in the public’s eye in a lot of ways,” he said.
Smith said he does not think the inquiry itself will have harmful political effects because the vulnerable Republicans will have an “air of legitimacy” to point to even if no “smoking gun” is found. He added that the multiple investigations into Trump have desensitized many to these processes.
“It’s lowered the shock factor to all of this. I think everyone starts to hit a point of desensitization when we’ve gone through, now this’ll be impeachment investigation number three in the last four years. … At some point, the public starts to get inoculated to this,” he said. “That’s just not as effective anymore, and it all sounds like the same noise.”
But Townsend drew a possible parallel to House Republicans’ impeachment of then-President Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Republicans focused on impeachment proceedings against Clinton in the fall of 1998, but the public viewed them poorly and the GOP had a disappointing performance in that year’s midterm elections, leading to the resignation of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).
“I guess history repeats itself,” Townsend said. “The trouble is sometimes people forget it.”