Haley, DeSantis neck and neck for second in Iowa, Trump maintains wide lead: Poll

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is neck and neck with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place in the Iowa GOP primary, while former President Trump continues to hold a wide lead for first place, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey found Trump at 50 percent among Republican caucus voters when respondents were asked who they would be most likely to vote for, while Haley received 17 percent and DeSantis received about 15 percent.  

The margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points for the survey size of 420 voters, meaning Haley and DeSantis are within the margin of error.  

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy received 8 percent. Six percent said they were undecided, and another 4 percent said they would support former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.  

Haley has seen an increase of 10 percentage points since a similar survey was conducted in September, while Trump, DeSantis and Ramaswamy have only seen a 1-point increase. 

The polling is notable as DeSantis and the super PAC supporting him have largely staked out their presence in Iowa. DeSantis has widely been polling in second place in the Hawkeye State behind Trump, though a NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey released in late October showed Haley tied with DeSantis for second place. 

“Among registered Republicans, Trump leads with 52%, compared to 16% for Haley and 14% for DeSantis – independents show a closer contest, with Trump at 43%, Haley at 25%, and DeSantis at 15%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release. “These numbers suggest that Trump will perform better in closed primary states where only registered Republicans can vote.” 

Kimball noted that Haley has created an edge against Trump among post-graduate GOP voters of 20 points but still trails the former president among both female and male voters in the state. 

“Haley has made inroads with female voters where she trails Trump 47% to 20% (27 point difference) as compared with males who break for Trump 53% to 15% (38 point difference) for Haley,” Kimball said. 

The polling also comes as Haley has steadily risen in the polls in New Hampshire, where she largely sits in second place. A CBS News/YouGov survey released over the weekend showed Trump at 44 percent while Haley sat at 29 percent in the Granite State. 

Though the CBS News/YouGov poll shows Haley narrowing the gap in New Hampshire, Trump still holds a double-digit lead over her and DeSantis in both early states — raising questions about whether either will be able to keep the race competitive against the former president. 

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Dec. 15-17 with 1,094 Iowa voters surveyed and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The Iowa GOP caucus subset has a survey size of 420 voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.