California, New York in danger of seeing House delegations shrink further

California and New York could see their House delegations shrink on the basis of population trends, while delegations in the South could grow, according to an analysis of recent U.S. census data.

The analysis by the Brennan Center projected that California would lose four of its 52 congressional districts in reapportionment, the once-in-a-decade process in which population determines representation in Congress, if current trajectories hold.

California lost more than 75,000 residents in the last year, according to the new census numbers.

If California does lose seats in the House, it would be just the second time in its history.

The Golden State doubled its congressional delegation between 1940 and 2010, the analysis found. The first time the state lost representation was after the 2020 census, losing one seat after the state’s population declined in the decade.

Brennan’s data found that New York would lose three congressional seats in 2030 if current trends continue.

Census data shows that the Northeast saw the largest decline in population across the country, and that New York saw the largest losses in 2023 of any state. Nearly 102,000 people left the state in 2023.

Illinois, which lost almost 33,000 people, would lose two seats, and Pennsylvania, which lost more than 10,000 residents, would give up one seat, projections show.

Between New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania, all three states would be left “with congressional delegations half the size they were in 1940,” the Brennan Center found.

These changes could also have an impact on the Electoral College. California, New York and Illinois have all voted for Democratic presidential candidates for decades. Pennsylvania is more of a swing state, though it has only voted for one GOP presidential nominee — former President Trump in 2016 — in the last four decades.

The Midwest and West both saw slight population increases last year, with the Midwest turning around the region’s trend of two consecutive years of losses.

The West saw population growth in 2023 because of “somewhat higher international migration and slightly fewer deaths,” the census found.

Multiple states in the West — Arizona, Idaho and Utah — would gain representation in 2030 if the trends stayed on track. After 2020, three states in the West each gained one district: Colorado, Oregon and Montana.

The South, already the most populated region in the country, continued to grow throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and accounted for 87 pe*rcent of the nation’s growth last year, the census found.

More than 1 million people moved to the South in 2023. About 700,000 people came to the South through domestic migration, and 500,000 moved to the region through international migration, the census found.

While the region gained population across the board, people generally relocated to Texas and Florida.

Texas earned two new congressional districts after the 2020 census, while Florida added one. If trends continue, Texas could gain four congressional seats in 2030 and Florida could gain three, the analysis found.

North Carolina added one seat in 2020, bringing the state’s total to 14 congressional districts. If trends stayed on track, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee would each gain another district.

“These changes would solidify a shift in the regional balance of power,” the Brennan Center authors wrote. “Whereas in 1960, the South, Midwest, and Northeast regions all had roughly the same population, by 2030, the South will be by far the country’s most populous region and home to nearly 4 in 10 Americans.”

The census has not released the latest figures on racial and ethnic population changes, but according to Michael Li, who authored the Brennan Center analysis, many of the people moving to the South are people of color.

Cost of living and housing prices, along with economic booms and investments in clean energy and manufacturing, may be driving a mass domestic migration to the South. And particularly migration to the suburbs — places that are light red, light blue or purple, and not as solidly Republican red or Democrat blue, Li added.

It appears people are looking for opportunity and moving where they can find it, which, Li said, “is a little bit paradoxical” because people expected a migration out of the South as many states adopt “reactionary policies,” such as abortion restrictions and gerrymandering.

“That doesn’t quite seem to have happened,” he added.

Li argued that the big question right now is how the change in Southern populations will affect politics.

“It’s probably fair to say a lot of the turmoil in Southern politics right now is driven by the fact that the states are changing very fast,” he said. “They’re changing very fast demographically, in terms of race and ethnicity.”

The 2030 census is still several years away, which means apportionment changes may not fall in line with projections and current population trends.

It’s still early and depends on how much effort states will put into getting people to participate in the next census, Li noted. Still, one thing is clear: The South remains a popular place to reside.

“Barring something completely unforeseen, the 2020s are shaping up to be the South’s decade,” Li wrote in the analysis. “And that, in turn, will have major ramifications for fair representation and fair maps.”