Republican presidential contenders are banking on enthusiasm ahead of Monday’s Iowa caucuses as final poll numbers show former President Trump looks to be a runaway candidate.
The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday showed Trump leading the presidential primary pack followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
However, that same poll showed enthusiasm for Haley falling behind Trump and DeSantis. That factor — plus record-low temperatures that may keep people at home — could be enough to decide the results of the nation’s first presidential nominating contest.
Monday’s caucuses are on track to be the coldest in decades. According to the National Weather Service, temperatures in the Des Moines area could reach -11 with a windchill as low as -30.
“The wild card is the weather. Most of us politicos can see trends and make smart predictions, but this weather is so extreme,” said David Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican strategist. “Thirty-five below is too much for a lot of people to deal with, and it’s hard to say how much impact it will have on turnout or which candidate benefits and which suffers from a big drop in turnout.”
That’s where enthusiasm could be a factor. The latest Des Moines Register poll showed 49 percent of Republicans who said Trump was their first choice said they were “extremely enthusiastic” about him, while 34 percent and 22 percent said they were “very enthusiastic” and “mildly enthusiastic,” respectively.
Twenty-three percent of Republicans who said DeSantis was their first choice said they were extremely enthusiastic about the governor, while 39 percent and 33 percent said they were “very” and “mildly enthusiastic.” Meanwhile, only 9 percent of Republicans who said Haley was their first pick said they were “extremely enthusiastic.” Thirty percent said they were “very enthusiastic” in supporting Haley and 49 percent said they were “mildly enthusiastic.”
Haley addressed the enthusiasm gap during an interview with “Fox News Sunday.”
“I’m not worried. Look, I am not a political pollster, I’m not going to worry about the numbers,” Haley told the network, adding that momentum for her campaign on the ground is “strong.”
“To me the only numbers that matter are the ones that we’re going up and everybody else went down. That shows that we’re doing the right thing,” she said.
Haley was forced to cancel an event in Dubuque due to the weather on Sunday, instead addressing a crowd of 150 people in Ames alongside Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R).
When asked about the poll, a spokesperson for the pro-Haley Stand for America PAC pointed to DeSantis’s lag in the poll.
“Nikki is in a great position in Iowa and heading next to New Hampshire, she’s the best candidate to take on Joe Biden,” said Preya Samsundar, a spokesperson for the PAC. “Ron DeSantis has a significant bar to reach on caucus night, and anything but a first-place win is a failure for his campaign.”
Haley supporters at campaign events have indicated that they are ready to caucus for the former ambassador despite the extreme chill.
“It’s just another day,” Bruce Young, a Haley supporter, told The Hill at a campaign event in Ankeny on Thursday. “This is just Iowa winter.”
“It’s not going to stop us,” he added.
On Saturday, DeSantis and his surrogates crisscrossed the state for campaign events despite dangerous conditions on the roads following the blizzard. DeSantis’s team has repeatedly pointed to the strength of their organization when asked about the weather.
“I thought Ted Cruz, who I endorsed in 2016, had one of the best organizations I had ever seen,” said prominent Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, who is backing the Florida governor. “DeSantis’s campaign, light-years ahead.”
Trump is the clear and dominant leader in enthusiasm if the polls are correct. However, the former president was still urging his supporters to brave the weather Monday.
“Brave the weather and go out and save America,” Trump told a packed crowd indoors at Simpson College outside of Des Moines on Sunday.
Trump’s supporters at the rally braved negative temperatures, windchill, and in some cases dangerous roads.
“This morning I couldn’t get out of our driveway,” said Peggy Hutchison, a Trump supporter who attended the rally despite difficulties on the road.
“Trump supporters, they’re loyal. I don’t think the weather is going to affect them,” said Brad Boustead, a volunteer with the Urbandale Republicans.
Boustead cautioned that while the weather may not impact turnout among Trump’s supporters, the logistics and mechanics of a caucus could.
“If you go to a Trump event, a lot of people there have never been into caucuses, they’re not into local politics, they watch TV, they know everything that’s going on around the United States, they know all about Nancy Pelosi, they know about Mitch McConnell, but they don’t necessarily know who their local city councilman is,” Boustead said.
“So they may not turn out for caucuses because they’re not into all of this little stuff. They’re like, ‘I got my Trump hat on, I got my Trump socks on, I got my Trump T-shirt on, I’m going to vote for him in November,’ but they’re overlooking the importance of this caucus.”
Iowa strategists and voters warn that caucuses tend to be unpredictable to begin with, so the weather is just another added factor to the scenario.
“We’re all just going to have to bundle up and watch the results come in throughout tomorrow night,” Kochel said. “Like a lot of Iowa caucuses, this one could pack a surprise.”