Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, new polling shows, even as the Republican frontrunner faces mounting legal woes.
A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found Trump with 48 percent to Biden’s 42 percent in a head-to-head race, with another 9 percent of registered voters unsure who they would back between the two.
Even if Trump is indicted in one of his legal battles, the polling suggests he could still defeat Biden.
If Trump is convicted of trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia, he’s still the favorite to win, with 52 percent to Biden’s 48 percent.
If he’s convicted for inciting the riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, his lead extends to 8 points, with 54 percent to Biden’s 46 percent.
And if he’s convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents, voters are split 50-50 on who to vote for.
Trump has long framed his courtroom battles as political attacks, and the messaging appears to be resonating with voters as he continues to lead the Republican presidential field.
Nearly 6 in 10 voters in the poll said they think Democrats are engaged in “lawfare,” or “using the government and legal system in biased ways to take out a political opponent.”
A slight majority, or 54 percent, said they think the prosecutions against Trump are politically motivated, rather than fair and unbiased. The same percentage said they thought Trump’s legal cases make it impossible for him to be a viable candidate.
Voters were split 50-50 on whether the former president has committed crimes for which he’ll be convicted — as well as on whether Trump is a “threat to democracy” if he wins a second term in the Oval Office.
The survey was conducted Feb. 21-22 among 2,022 registered voters by The Harris Poll and Harris X. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.