Redistricting battles to watch as Democrats look to flip the House

Democrats are looking to gain more favorable congressional maps in several states as they seek to flip the House this fall.

In New York and Wisconsin, Democrats are looking to get more competitive House maps in states that could prove pivotal in November. Meanwhile, in Louisiana, a lawsuit has been filed by minority voters seeking to block the state’s adoption of a new congressional map that created a second majority-Black district.

Meanwhile in North Carolina, Republicans are expected to gain several seats, as they passed a House map last year that offers a more favorable terrain for the party, though several lawsuits against congressional lines could see them being redrawn.  

Here’s a look at several key redistricting battles and where they stand ahead of November.  

New York 

Democratic state lawmakers will be introducing their own House map after both chambers voted Monday to reject a set of congressional lines proposed by the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC).  

The IRC was required to offer new congressional lines for the state after Democrats won a lawsuit late last year ordering the bipartisan commission to get a second try at drafting up a House map after deadlocking last cycle.  

The IRC’s map offered changes to a limited number of seats, tilting Rep. Pat Ryan’s (D-N.Y.) seat in the 18th Congressional District and Rep. Brandon Williams’s (R-N.Y.) seat in the 22nd Congressional District more Democratic, while tilting Rep. Marc Molinaro’s (R-N.Y.) seat in the 19th more Republican.  

The state GOP endorsed the IRC’s map, but it was met with blowback from state Democrats — fueling uncertainty over what the makeup of the House districts in the Empire State will look like, how it could impact gathering signatures for candidates and whether the primary date might be changed for a second election cycle in a row.  

The redistricting battle is a critical one to watch because New York will play a key role in determining the House majority this fall. Democrats lost a handful of seats in the Empire State during the midterms after the IRC deadlocked on offering a set of maps for the election and Democrats who drew their own map quickly saw their lines struck down by a court.  

That prompted a court-appointed special master to draw lines that were used during the midterms that led to a handful of Republicans winning seats in the state, creating the GOP’s narrow majority in the lower chamber.  

But state lawmakers will have to proceed with caution in creating a new House map, lest it get struck down again over gerrymandering. 

Wisconsin 

Democrats won a major victory last year when the state Supreme Court ordered the state Legislature’s maps to be redrawn. Now the party is looking to use the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s opinion in that case as reason to consider redrawing the state’s congressional map, too. 

Democrats asked the state’s high court last month to reconsider Wisconsin’s House map, pointing out that the Wisconsin Supreme Court wrote in their decision ordering new state Legislature maps that they would not be considering a “least change” approach. “Least change” refers to the idea of offering as few changes to the current map. 

“With the ‘least change’ approach that justified the map’s adoption overruled, the map now lacks any basis in Wisconsin redistricting law or precedent,” wrote lawyers from the progressive elections firm Elias Law Group in seeking to have the state Supreme Court reconsider the congressional map. 

Gov. Tony Evers (D) last week pressed the Wisconsin Supreme Court to reconsider the map, though it’s unclear if the high court will take up the request. 

“Given that the maps the Governor submitted in Johnson were grounded in that ‘least change’ approach, the Governor urges the Court to review its decision and stands ready to participate in any future proceedings the Court may order,” Assistant Attorney General Anthony Russomanno wrote to the high court.  

The congressional delegation in Wisconsin includes six Republicans and two Democrats, though the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts are battleground seats in the state.

North Carolina 

Republicans scored a win during the November midterms when the GOP was able to flip control of the state Supreme Court from a liberal majority to a conservative one. That ultimately allowed the state’s high court to reverse a decision made by the then-liberal state Supreme Court that had struck down Republicans’ congressional map as a gerrymander. 

The state’s current House delegation is split evenly between Democrats and Republicans at 7-7, but Republicans passed a new set of House maps last year that created a more favorable terrain for the GOP, including 10 seats that favor Republicans, three that favor Democrats and one competitive seat. 

Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson and Wiley Nickel have said they are not seeking another term in light of the new maps, though the Republican maps are facing several lawsuits, which have been filed over the congressional lines. It remains unclear if challenges to those lines would be addressable before November.

Louisiana

Louisiana, along with Alabama, recently approved a new map that creates a second district that is almost majority Black after the previous map was found to be in violation of the Voting Rights Act.

The decision was seen as a huge victory for voting rights advocates, as well as Democrats, who are favored to win in the new district due to its demographic makeup.

However, a group of 12 minority voters in the state have sued over the new map, arguing it violates the 14th and 15th Amendments.

“The State has engaged in explicit, racial segregation of voters and intentional discrimination against voters based on race,” the lawsuit alleges.

The case will be heard by a three-judge panel and could potentially impact the November election.