Gallego leads Lake in Arizona Senate race: Poll

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) holds a 4-point lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake in the Arizona Senate race, according to a poll released Wednesday.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that 44 percent of Arizona registered voters chose Gallego, while 40 percent chose Lake in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). Roughly 16 percent said they were undecided.

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward in the race, the race gets tighter, with Gallego at 51 percent and Lake at 49 percent. That difference is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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At the same time, the poll found former President Trump leading President Biden 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided or saying someone else.

Emerson College Polling noted that 32 percent of voters said immigration was their top issue, with 22 percent who said the economy and 11 percent who said housing affordability. The issues of education, health care, abortion access, threats to democracy and crime each received less than 10 percent.

Interestingly, Lake performs better with voters who call immigration their most important issue at 77 percent to Gallego’s 12 percent. But 43 percent back Gallego versus 38 percent who back Lake among voters who call the economy their most important issue.  

“With Sinema off the ballot, independent voters break toward Gallego, 42% to 38%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release.  

“Voters under 40 break for Gallego 44% to 30%, while voters ages 40 to 59 break for Lake. Those in their 60s are split: 47% for Gallego and 46% for Lake, and those over 70 turn back to Gallego, 50% to 45%.” 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted March 12-15 with 1,000 registered voters in Arizona. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.