Biden holds double-digit lead in Democratic primary

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead against his closest rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But there are signs Biden’s support may be slipping, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.

The poll showed Biden with 28 percent support among registered Democratic voters, a 4-point drop since last month when a similar survey showed him at 32 percent. He’s trailed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who registered 17 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

No other candidate registered double digits. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), the fourth-place finisher in the poll, notched 6 percent, while three other candidates, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, tied for fifth place with 3 percent each.{mosads}

Only three others, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, registered above 1 percent in the poll, taking 2 percent support each.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll surveyed 693 registered Democratic voters from Sept. 22-24, and does not report a margin of error.

While Biden still leads in the poll, there were positive signs for Warren, who gained 4 points since a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey conducted last month. The Massachusetts senator saw her support among black voters, a key Democratic voting bloc, more than double, ticking up from 6 percent in August to 13 percent at the end of September.

She also saw a 6-point gain among white voters, jumping from 15 percent in August to 21 percent in September, the poll shows. Biden, meanwhile, lost 10 points among white voters, falling from 35 percent last month to 25 percent now.

“We confirm that Biden is holding on, but Warren is surging as she develops a national following within the primary electorate,” Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, said. “The Sanders campaign could be in real trouble if they do not stem the tide soon.”

The poll follows on the heels of a slew of other surveys showing Warren taking the lead from Biden. A Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll released last weekend showed her at 22 percent support, edging out Biden at 20 percent. And a Monmouth University poll found her leading Biden in New Hampshire, 27 percent to 25 percent.

Likewise, a Quinnipiac University national poll released on Wednesday showed Warren leading the pack with 27 percent support. Biden came in second place in that survey, with 25 percent support.

Still, the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released on Thursday showed that a plurality of voters — 34 percent — perceive Biden as the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Trump in 2020. Sanders and Warren are statistically tied for second place on that front, scoring 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll surveyed 693 registered Democratic voters from Sept. 22-24. The poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll throughout 2019.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.