West Virginia GOP governor’s primary tightens: Poll

The Republican primary race for West Virginia governor has tightened, according to a new poll, with the top two contenders within the poll’s margin of error. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday showed state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading with 28 percent, followed closely by former state Rep. Moore Capito with 25 percent.

Businessman Chris Miller was in third with 19 percent, and West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner was in fourth with 12 percent, while 16 percent of respondents said they were undecided. 

Those figures mark a significant tightening in the race compared to Emerson and The Hill’s previous poll of the race from March, when Morrisey was more clearly in the lead with 33 percent. Miller came in second with 16 percent followed by Capito with 14 percent, but almost 30 percent said at the time that they were undecided. 

Capito, who is the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and grandson of former Gov. Arch Moore Jr., saw the largest improvement from March, rising 11 points. Warner improved by 6 points and Miller rose by 3 points, while Morrisey fell 5 points. 

When those who said they were undecided in this month’s poll were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, Morrisey’s lead ticked up to 4 points with 33 percent to Capito’s 29 percent, Miller’s 21 percent and Warner’s 15 percent. 

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted in a release that Morrisey leads Capito among registered Republicans by 6 points, 29 percent to 23 percent, while Capito leads among independent or unaffiliated voters by 12 points, 35 percent to 23 percent. 

The polling also found a split in voters’ preferences based on education level. Morrisey leads by 14 points among those whose highest level of education is high school or less and by 6 points among those whose highest level is college, but Capito leads among Republican voters with a postgraduate degree by 25 points. 

Morrisey has secured endorsements from several notable conservative organizations, including the Club for Growth and the Charles Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity. 

Capito, in addition to gaining support from his mother who has served in her Senate seat since 2015, also secured the endorsement of outgoing Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is running for the state’s open Senate seat. 

Because of West Virginia’s status as a strongly red-leaning state, whoever wins the GOP primary for governor will likely win the general election and succeed Justice. 

The poll was conducted May 2-5 among 558 GOP primary voters. The margin of error was 4.1 points.