Maryland Democratic Senate primary locked in dead heat: Poll

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) are locked in a dead heat in the Maryland Democratic Senate primary, according to a new poll. 

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey released Thursday showed Alsobrooks at 42 percent support and Trone at 41 percent in the Democratic contest to replace outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin (D). 

Twelve percent of respondents said they were undecided, while another 5 percent said they supported someone else.

The 1-point gap between Alsobrooks and Trone is well within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5 points.

When undecided voters are factored in and asked whom they’re leaning toward, Alsobrooks receives 47 percent, while Trone sits at 44 percent, still within the margin of error.

The survey indicates a change from a similar survey conducted in February, which showed Trone at 32 percent and Alsobrooks at 17 percent. Trone has spent tens of millions of dollars in the Democratic primary, with the dynamics of the race shifting as the primary has drawn closer. 

“Among those who already voted, Trone leads 51% to 45%, while those who are likely but have not yet voted break for Alsobrooks, 41% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is expected to cruise to the GOP nomination, with the survey showing him receiving 56 percent in the Republican primary.  

When the poll offers hypothetical November match-ups between Hogan and his top two rivals, both Democrats come out ahead. Alsobrooks receives 48 percent, while Hogan receives 38 percent. Trone leads Hogan 49 percent to 38 percent.  

Hogan’s unexpected entry into the race threw a curveball for Democrats in what was supposed to be an easy win for them in a deep-blue state. Some recent polling has shown him leading both Alsobrooks and Trone.

The Maryland Senate primaries are Tuesday. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey was conducted May 6-8 with 1,115 Maryland registered voters surveyed. The margin of error for the entire sample is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The poll includes 462 respondents surveyed in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, while 248 respondents were surveyed for the Republican primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.