New Quinnipiac poll finds Biden leading in New Hampshire

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a narrow lead in New Hampshire, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are all running strong near the top, according to a new poll.

The latest Quinnipiac University survey of New Hampshire finds Biden at 20 percent, followed by Warren at 16 percent, Buttigieg at 15 percent and Sanders at 14 percent.

{mosads}The Quinnipiac survey of Iowa released last week similarly found a four-candidate crunch at the top about three months out from the first ballots being cast.

“New Hampshire has mountains. Iowa has plains. They couldn’t be more different except for the results of the last two Quinnipiac University polls, which both show 4 candidates in the top tier,” said Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy. “Although Biden has a slight lead in the Granite State, it’s far from rock solid, and both states are clearly still up for grabs.”

Rounding out the field in New Hampshire are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) at 6 percent, tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 4 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and businessman Tom Steyer at 3 percent each.

A strong majority of voters, 61 percent, said they could still change their minds before Election Day, and 14 percent said they’re completely undecided at the moment.

Among independent or “undeclared” voters in New Hampshire who say they’re likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Biden leads at 16 percent, followed by Sanders and Buttigieg at 14 percent and Warren and Gabbard at 10 percent.

Biden also leads among registered Democrats who expect to vote on primary day, with 25 percent support, followed by Warren at 24 percent, Buttigieg at 16 percent and Sanders at 14 percent.

Sanders has the firmest and most enthusiastic base of support in New Hampshire.

Fifty-seven percent of Sanders’s backers say their mind is made up and they’ll definitely vote for him. The next closest is Biden at 43 percent, followed by Warren at 29 percent and Buttigieg at 24 percent.

And 44 percent of Sanders’s voters say they’re extremely excited to turn out for him on Election Day, a 23-point advantage over Warren, who is at 21 percent. Only 19 percent of Biden’s supporters described themselves as very excited and 12 percent of Buttigieg’s backers said the same.

About one-third of New Hampshire Democrats said the quality they want most in a candidate is the ability to defeat President Trump in the general election.

Biden is boosted on this front, as 31 percent of those polled who said electability is most important are backing Biden, followed by Warren at 20 percent, Buttigieg at 19 percent and Sanders at 6 percent. Sanders leads among Democrats who said “honesty” is the most important quality in a candidate.

Quinnipiac asked voters if they would consider former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he were to get into the race.

Two percent of voters said they would definitely cast a ballot for Bloomberg if he gets in and 37 percent said they would at least consider voting for him. Fifty-four percent said they definitely would not vote for Bloomberg.

“If he truly is in, there is a lot of work to do,” said Malloy. “But with vast resources to draw from, Michael Bloomberg’s nascent campaign could morph from ‘under construction’ to ‘full steam ahead’ in a New York minute.”

The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,134 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire was conducted between Nov. 6 and Nov. 10 and has a 3.8 percentage point margin of error.