GOP eyes Mountain West for electoral gains in 2010

GOP congressional candidates in the notoriously libertarian Mountain West believe they have an issue that could reap electoral gains in 2010 — government spending.

Republicans have traditionally portrayed Democrats as big spenders, but with the $700 billion rescue package, a $787 billion stimulus package, rising healthcare costs and a growing tax bill, the GOP thinks, for the first time, that it will be able to make the connection in voters’ minds between spending and taxes that come later.

{mosads}The 2008 bailout legislation and February’s economic stimulus package stoked a rage among many voters, an anger that showed up on April 15 in the form of hundreds of rallies around the country against what protesters said would be too much taxation.

“It is anger. There is an outright hostility toward the spending taking place in Washington, D.C.,” said Cory Gardner (R), the Colorado state House minority whip who is challenging freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo).

Democrats deny that spending will be an albatross for their candidates, and have said voters will notice when the economy picks up.

“Just like the rest of the country that [has] been hit by the tough economy, Westerners are looking for representatives who are committed to turning the economy around,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Andy Stone.

But polling numbers tell a different story.

According to internal GOP numbers, Democrats enjoyed an 11-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot before the 2008 election.

Now, early polls in the 2010 cycle show Republicans leading the generic ballot by six points, even as President Obama retains high approval ratings in the region.

“Western voters are quite independent, and they are looking for greater balance in government. There’s a rather serious concern over policy direction in the Obama administration,” said Nicole McCleskey, a Western polling expert with the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies.

“There’s an approach to government that is not a hallmark of Western states’ ideologies, that government should not play a terribly active role in our lives,” McCleskey added. “I think Western voters bristle at the notion that government knows best.”

After losing a significant percentage of the Mountain West in recent cycles — including six seats in 2008 alone — the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has found early success recruiting top-notch candidates in key districts. And those candidates are all sounding similar tones.

“There’s a growing concern from people that the recent rush to judgment in terms of how to solve these [economic] problems isn’t necessarily working,” said Jim Ward, a businessman running against Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.). “The steps that we have taken as a nation toward addressing those issues are making things worse.”

Ward and former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) are challenging Mitchell, while Republicans have scored top recruits in races against Reps. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Markey, Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.). The NRCC is encouraging top recruits against Reps. Harry Teague (D-N.M.) and Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) as well, though there are no formal candidates. All but Mitchell are first-term lawmakers. Mitchell is in his second term.

Western voters largely abandoned the Republican Party in recent years as the GOP put more focus on social issues than it did on fiscal conservatism. And when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) promised a fiscally responsible Democratic Congress, her party made Western gains.

But Republicans hope that will change after two years of Democratic control in Washington.

“So many folks out there that I’m talking to are so frustrated. They’re angry about this era of change that was being touted by the Obama administration,” said Vaughn Ward, a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan hoping to replace Minnick. “If you were to look down [the] railroad tracks and say, ‘What’s coming in the future?’ it’s got to be taxes.”

Gardner and both Wards, who are not related, signaled they will make spending cornerstones of their campaign, even though polls have showed most Americans still back specific programs like the stimulus legislation.

It can work, McCleskey said, because government spending is rising faster than families’ paychecks. A third of voters say increased spending is their biggest concern, while another 13 percent are most concerned about taxes, adding up to almost half the electorate.

{mosads}“Middle-class families aren’t seeing wage increases to pay for the tax increases to support the dramatic increases in government programs,” she said. “Most voters don’t see any direct benefit as a result of these government proposals, and they don’t expect to.”

In some cases, the candidates may even use hyperbolic rhetoric. “Is it still a democracy? Is it still capitalism?” Idaho’s Ward asked of a deficit he claims has been quadrupled. “I never thought I’d be asking these questions, but that’s what people are concerned about today.”

Like Mitchell, Markey and Minnick, Democrats in the Mountain West tend to be more conservative than their coastal colleagues. But as in the South and parts of the Midwest, GOP candidates have signaled they will use Pelosi as a cudgel.

Though Minnick voted against the stimulus, Vaughn Ward says the freshman Democrat is partly responsible for putting Pelosi in charge.

“His first vote cast was to endorse her and her agenda,” Ward said. “Her agenda is part of his responsibility.”

“You can’t complain about bipartisanship and say that you want to reach across the aisle when you have a Speaker of the House who has basically subverted that,” said Jim Ward of his opponent, Mitchell. “A vote for Harry Mitchell is a vote for Nancy Pelosi, and people have to make a decision about whether that’s the direction they want to take this country.”

While Democratic gains in the region may have wounded Republicans in the short run, some GOP candidates see their rivals as opportunities to refresh an ailing party. Plus, some say, one can learn from Democratic incumbents.

“If you look at the Democrats who have won in the West, they are Democrats who have won by appealing to people’s naturally conservative tendencies,” Gardner said. “They ran on common-sense conservative Western ethics. That’s exactly what we have to do as Republicans: Get back to walking the talk.”

“This is a good chance to bring about a new era, a new generation of Republicans,” Vaughn Ward said. “We maybe lost our way to some extent.”