Barbour makes his national debut, Part II

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is not a subtle man. Making his first visits to two key early presidential states, Barbour has raised his profile with as much nuance as a bull in a china shop.

On Monday, the two-term governor and Washington veteran campaigned with former Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R), the GOP’s nominee for governor, at fundraisers and media availabilities in Virginia Beach, Richmond and the Washington suburbs.

{mosads}After raising $250,000, according to figures provided by the campaign, Barbour retreated to his old haunts in Washington for a lavish dinner at the steakhouse he and his former lobbying partner founded.

There, Barbour wined and dined half a dozen top Republican operatives, including former White House political director Sara Taylor; Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign; GOP money man Ed Rogers; and anti-tax crusaders Grover Norquist and Steve Moore.

The dinner, first reported by The Washington Post’s Fix blog, focused on the importance of the Republican Governors Association, where Barbour is the new chairman, following South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford’s resignation, and the direction of the Republican Party. Attendees touched lightly on presidential politics, according to one of those present, but no one directly discussed the possibility of a Barbour candidacy.

Barbour headlined a major fundraiser in New Hampshire on Wednesday, and on Thursday he will be the main draw at a fundraiser in Iowa. Though he says he is unlikely to run for president, the back-to-back appearances in early presidential states are hard to ignore.

Barbour is widely viewed as one of the smartest elected operators in the GOP. A former chairman of the Republican National Committee given significant credit for the party’s wins in 1993 and 1994, Barbour has spent the last several years talking up the importance of GOP governors, who led the party’s resurgence a decade and a half ago.

Even if he did take the plunge, Barbour is pragmatic enough to realize the hurdles he would face. At a recent breakfast with reporters sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor, Barbour joked that he had hit the trifecta of unpopular jobs: He’s a lawyer, he’s a politician and he’s a lobbyist.

But maybe Barbour will take a shot at the White House anyway. After all, our spy at Monday’s dinner noted: “Everybody there was somebody who helps elect people.”

— R.W.

It’s Toomey Time

It’s been a long road for former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). But they are now stuck with each other.

What began as distaste, when he challenged Sen. Arlen Specter in a primary, morphed into lukewarm recognition when Specter switched to the Democrats. Now it can only be described as a necessary embrace.

National Republicans appear set with Toomey as their candidate in Pennsylvania’s Senate race after Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) made it clear over the last week that he’s not serious about running for Senate.

{mosads}Gerlach told the Allentown Morning Call on Wednesday that the Senate race is “pretty much off the table.” That statement tracks closely with what he told The Hill last week, when he stressed that he was “exploring a run for governor, and that’s where our focus is.”

Gerlach never showed much interest in the Senate — he has an exploratory committee for the governor’s race — but he seemed a better fit there than in the crowded executive race.

When Specter first became a Democrat, Republicans quickly looked to former Gov. Tom Ridge (R). And when he said no, some suggested Gerlach. All the while, though, Republicans already had a candidate in the race.

Now he is their candidate.

The party isn’t necessarily going to endorse anytime soon, but NRSC Chairman John Cornyn’s (Texas) recent $5,000 political action committee contribution to Toomey’s campaign is about as clear as a signal gets.

— A.B.

From bad to worse for the GOP

Republicans and Democrats routinely point to polling numbers as evidence that the other guy is sinking, and fast. But everyone conveniently overlooks the obvious: Politics does not exist in a vacuum.

Major media outlets released three well-respected polls this week, and though the initial results look positive for Republicans, a deeper look shows that the GOP remains on its heels.

Republicans point out that the polls, released by The New York Times and CBS News; The Washington Post and ABC News; and The Wall Street Journal and NBC News, all show President Obama losing some public support.

{mosads}But the president’s approval rating ranges from 56 to 65 percent, and that’s a lot better than any Republican in the country. Overall, the GOP is seen favorably by between 28 and 36 percent, while 56 to 58 percent view it unfavorably.

Americans trust Obama to do a better job than Republicans in Congress on healthcare reform, the economy, the federal budget deficit and even the threat of terrorism, all by margins of over 20 points, according to the polls.

Republicans maintain they will come out looking good if the economy hasn’t turned around by the 2010 elections. In essence, the GOP argues, President Bush is no longer in office, and voters will look forward rather than back if Democrats try to blame Bush for the economic climate.

But one number jumped out at us: Forty-six percent of Americans blame the Bush administration for the current federal budget deficit. Add in the 7 percent who say it’s mostly the fault of congressional Republicans and more than half of Americans think the deficit lands squarely on GOP shoulders. Meanwhile, just 21 percent blame congressional Democrats and 6 percent blame Obama’s administration.

So Republicans are right, in a sense: Some of the shine has come off the very popular Obama. But he still looks clean as a whistle when he stands next to the congressional GOP.

— R.W.