Melancon gets ready to put Vitter’s ‘serious sin’ on trial

While one Republican senator was dealing with the fallout from an affair last week, another learned he could face electoral consequences for his own misbehavior.

Sen. John Ensign’s (R-Nev.) admission that he had an affair with a campaign staffer represented the beginning of a political struggle that will play out over the course of the next three and a half years, in advance of the 2012 campaign.

{mosads}Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) is halfway through that same process, and it could be headed for a very serious conclusion now that Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) has made it known he was eyeing a run at Vitter’s seat, which is up in 2010.

If he makes the race, as is widely expected, Democrats will find out just how serious voters are about Vitter’s self-described “very serious sin” with a prostitute.

“If Charlie Melancon gets in and is well-funded, there’s the potential for a very tight race,” said Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette.

State Democratic Party Chairman Chris Whittington said the prostitute issue will be front and center in the campaign, because Vitter will now be forced to answer questions he otherwise wouldn’t have.

“He’s going to have to now,” Whittington said. “And it’s such a strong issue, because he banged that Bible and ran on family values, when in reality he’s completely the opposite of that.”

Democrats have been searching long and hard for a credible alternative to Vitter in a state that has ventured away from them. Melancon was their first choice from day one, thanks to his centrist profile and electoral success.

But whether Melancon is the best possible candidate and whether he can win are two different questions.

Democrats would like the race to be all about Vitter and his personal foibles, but Melancon will need plenty of help in a tough state. Republicans will do their best to nationalize the race at every turn, making it a referendum on President Obama, who performed poorly there last year, and Democratic initiatives like the stimulus package.

“Not much of what Obama’s done is revered down here,” independent pollster Bernie Pinsonat said. “The stimulus package didn’t go over well.”

Cross said the fact that Democrats are in power makes Melancon answerable to that record and makes things tougher for him.

“Strategically, it’s easier for Vitter,” Cross said. “He doesn’t have to run against Charlie Melancon. He can run against Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama and hammer them on the deficits, foreign policy and healthcare.”

{mosads}Melancon has carved out one of the most centrist records in the House over his career, and chairs the Blue Dog Coalition. But Republicans point to a smattering of recent votes they say depart from that record.

Among those votes are a few big ones in favor of the stimulus package, Obama’s budget and last year’s financial bailout. He did vote with Energy Committee Republicans last month against the current climate change bill.

Republicans have signaled that they will go after Melancon’s party affiliation.

“I just think that he has moved to the left,” said state GOP Chairman Roger Villere. “He was center-right for a number of years, but all of a sudden he’s done pretty much whatever the administration wants.”

Melancon’s office isn’t speaking out publicly in advance of his announcement, but a Louisiana Democratic source pointed to Melancon’s pro-gun and anti-abortion rights positions and his work across the aisle on hurricane issues.

Republicans are going to want to change the dialogue as soon as this race kicks off,” the source said.

Observers say the recent votes with Democrats on fiscal issues indicate Melancon wasn’t always serious about running for the Senate — a conclusion backed up by Melancon’s public statements. Sources say the entreaties of the national Democratic Party and the possibility of losing his district to reapportionment began to weigh more heavily on him.

Pinsonat pointed out that, while several members of the delegation have sought statewide profiles in preparation for future runs at higher office, Melancon hasn’t made the effort.

{mosads}“[Gov. Bobby] Jindal [R] did a lot of that” while in Congress, Pinsonat said. “He represented one area but was seen all over the state. Melancon hasn’t ventured out of his district.”

The situation in Melancon’s district provides plenty of reasons for him to run. With Louisiana set to lose a seat after the 2010 elections, his has been the focal point.

Republicans control much of the process, and the Democratic New Orleans district needs to be expanded to cover post-Katrina flight. Conventional wisdom suggests Melancon could be dealing with a tougher district at best, and a potential match-up with another member of Congress at worst.

All of it points to someone who has good reason to run for Senate and who might not have much of an alternative.

But he might not be alone. Democrats are still worried about the possibility of Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard joining Melancon in the primary.

Bernhard, who is frequently mentioned for statewide races, would bring lots of money to the race and is looking closely at it. The state party doesn’t know what he will do.

Whoever his opponent is, Vitter’s office said “there’ll be plenty of time for that debate.”

“Right now, Sen. Vitter is focused on being a critical voice in the Senate against President Obama’s huge increases in spending and debt and his efforts to take over banks, insurance companies, car companies and now healthcare,” spokesman Joel DiGrado said.