Open seats bring parties heartburn — and opportunity

Sen. Jim Bunning’s (R-Ky.) announcement Monday that he would retire at the end of his second term led to that rare beast — a seat Republicans have a better shot at taking without an incumbent.

But Bunning’s precarious political position is rare and, for both parties, competitive open seats usually involve more risk, cost more money and attract more attention than even the most tenuously attached incumbents.

{mosads}This year, with a spate of senators calling it quits and House members looking for a promotion, is no different. Already, 10 open seats are getting the kind of attention party leaders in Washington may wind up regretting:

• Missouri Senate: Sen. Kit Bond (R) is retiring, and both parties have recruited leading candidates. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) had a strong fundraising quarter and leads the fundraising chase with $1.76 million in the bank. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) has $1.37 million on hand and has, albeit only marginally, outraised Blunt.

Both parties expect a bitter fight between Blunt, perhaps the state’s best-known congressman, and Carnahan, the latest in a long line of family members, including both parents and brother Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), to serve in public office.

• Kentucky Senate: Counter to conventional wisdom, Democrats thought they had a better shot at winning the seat if Bunning pursued a third term. After narrowly winning a surprisingly tough reelection in 2004, Bunning openly feuded with Republican leaders who wanted him to step aside.

Now that he’s gone, the winner of a contested Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway will most likely face Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R), who had a strong quarter in the fundraising department. Grayson will have a primary too, but Democrats now have a tougher fight to win a seat they would have likely taken had Bunning stuck around.

• New Hampshire Senate: After casting about, at times without direction, Republicans finally landed a top-notch candidate in former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). But with some in the party worried about her conservative credentials, Ayotte is likely to face Ovide Lamontagne (R), a former Board of Education chairman who surprised New Hampshire Republicans when he won the party’s 1996 governor nomination.

Democrats got their top-tier candidate in Rep. Paul Hodes (D) and avoided a primary when Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) decided to run for another term. After a rocky first quarter, Hodes has picked up the fundraising pace, but Republicans have little intention of giving up the seat, and their eventual nominee will be flush with cash.

• Ohio Senate: Sen. George Voinovich’s (R-Ohio) retirement was the opening former Rep. Rob Portman (R) needed to get back into politics, and he has taken to it like a natural. Portman has more money on hand than some incumbents seeking reelection, and he will slip through a barely contested primary.

But Portman, a former official in the Bush administration, could prove the most obvious harbinger of whether the last president is still a problem for Republicans. Portman has touted his Washington experience, and the survivor of the Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is likely to make the race as much about Bush as anywhere in the nation.

• Delaware Senate: It’s not all bad news for Republicans. With Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) stepping down after taking care of Vice President Biden’s seat for two years, the best-laid Democratic plans, which would have seen Attorney General Beau Biden (D) step into his father’s old seat, may go awry.

That’s if — and only if — Republicans succeed in persuading Rep. Mike Castle (R) to run. Polls show Castle leading Biden, but the congressman is spending August deciding whether he wants to spend the next four years, the remainder of Joe Biden’s term, in the Senate, or simply call it a career at age 70.

• Illinois Senate: Like Republicans with Bunning, Democrats were not the least bit upset to see Sen. Roland Burris (D) opt for a graceful exit rather than a fight he would ultimately lose, either in the primary or the general. But unlike in Kentucky, Burris’s exit attracted a top challenger from the other party in Rep. Mark Kirk (R).

Kirk, a centrist who has won a Democratic-heavy district and can raise big money, will most likely face Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), though some other Democrats are flirting with a bid. Giannoulias is not the party’s ideal candidate, and the Illinois GOP already has reams of opposition research on him, but he will be able to self-fund some of his bid, and he could prove a fresh face in a state riven by corruption at many levels.

• Illinois-10: On the other hand, Kirk’s departure from his House seat gives Democrats a great chance to pick up a seat that has long eluded them. President Obama won 61 percent of the vote in Kirk’s Northshore district, and already, a strong Democratic field is shaping up.

State Sen. Michael Bond, state Rep. Julie Hamos and two-time nominee Dan Seals are all running, and any would be favored against a Republican next year. The GOP may turn to state Rep. Beth Coulson (R), a centrist like Kirk, or businessman Dick Green (R), who could spend his own money on a race in one of the nation’s most expensive media markets.

• Hawaii-01: With Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) set to run for governor, Republicans have a rare opportunity to contest a seat that is otherwise largely Democratic. National Republicans have touted Honolulu City Councilmember Charles Djou (R), who has raised some money so far, and if the economy stays in its current sad state it is possible Djou could be a surprise winner.

He will likely face former Rep. Ed Case (D), who once held the state’s other congressional seat before challenging Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) in the 2006 primary. Case had a centrist voting record in Congress, making Djou’s road rockier, but if Republicans have extra money to spend late in the cycle, they may choose to take a shot at a seat they would not contest against an incumbent.

• Louisiana-03: Like in Illinois, the Senate campaign committee’s gain is the House campaign committee’s loss. With Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) making preparations to run against Sen. David Vitter (R), Republicans have a good chance at picking up Melancon’s southeastern Louisiana district, a seat that gave Obama just 37 percent of the vote.

Republicans have a broad field considering the race, including former state House Speaker Hunt Downer, state Rep. Nickie Monica, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, St. John Parish President Bill Hubbard and Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph. Democratic recruiting efforts will focus on state Reps. Gary Smith and Fred Mills, both centrists in Melancon’s mold.

• Pennsylvania-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) is no stranger to tough races, and his bid for governor will be an uphill battle against better-known Republican foes. But the real damage could come in the seat he leaves behind. Obama won 58 percent in the exurban Philadelphia district, and already, retired newspaper editor Doug Pike (D) has raised a staggering haul of more than $660,000.

Republicans will turn to state Rep. Curt Schroder (R), who got his start raising money as Gerlach was considering a governor’s race. Schroder’s electoral base and Pike’s strong fundraising performance should have both parties optimistic, and nervous, about a district that has trended Democratic in recent years.