Poll: Trump trails Biden in Virginia, leads other 2020 Democrats

President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden in Virginia, but he leads the other top contenders for the Democratic nomination in the state, according to a new poll.

The latest survey from Mason-Dixon, released Tuesday, finds Biden’s support at 49 percent, compared with Trump’s 45 percent, in the Old Dominion.

But the statewide survey also found the president with a 6 percentage point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a 4-point lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and a 2-point lead over South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Virginia has been trending blue in recent elections and has gone for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the past three cycles.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 5.4 points in Virginia in 2016. Last month, Democrats won the General Assembly, giving them complete control of state government.

The Mason-Dixon survey, however, underscores Democratic concerns that the 2020 election will be a nail-biter through Election Day.

“Over the last 30 years, Virginia has evolved from a state that leaned Republican in presidential elections … into a true swing state, but now has become one that clearly leans Democratic,” Mason-Dixon’s pollsters wrote in an analysis of the survey. “Still, Democrats cannot completely take Virginia for granted as former Vice President Joe Biden is their only current candidate who is beating President Donald Trump.”

The poll bolsters Biden’s argument that he would be the strongest Democratic candidate in a head-to-head match-up against Trump.

Biden has the best favorability rating in the field of White House hopefuls, at 51 percent positive and 33 percent negative in the Mason-Dixon poll. Buttigieg is the only other candidate above water, at 33 percent favorable and 30 percent unfavorable, but he is not as well known in the state, with 16 percent of respondents saying they didn’t recognize his name.

Trump posted a negative split — 45 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable. Sanders was also underwater, at 35 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable. Warren’s favorability was 36 percent, while 51 percent of respondents had unfavorable views of her.

Biden bested Trump in the poll based on his strength among women and black voters. He leads Trump 54 percent to 39 percent among women, while Trump holds a 6-point lead, at 51 percent, over Biden among men.

White voters prefer Trump 57 percent to 37 percent over Biden, but the former vice president has 90 percent support among black voters in a hypothetical match-up against Trump.

The Mason-Dixon survey of 625 registered voters in Virginia was conducted Dec. 12-16 and has a 4 percentage point margin of error.