Cook Political Report shifts Michigan Senate race to toss-up

The nonpartisan group Cook Political Report (CPR) shifted the Michigan Senate race to a “toss up” on Thursday as issues with President Biden continue to affect Democrats in races elsewhere.

“If there was one race that was looking like a stronger opportunity for Republicans even before the CNN debate and looks even more in play now, it is Michigan,” CPR’s Senate and governors editor Jessica Taylor said in an analysis.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), who will likely be the Democratic nominee following the Aug. 6 primary, has held a lead, according to CPR. Still, that lead is narrower than races in other states that CPR has left in the “Lean Democrat” column.

Taylor said Slotkin, who flipped a House seat blue in 2018, is a strong candidate for Democrats but it’s also her first time running a state-wide campaign.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) enjoys the endorsement of former President Trump, but CPR said he has “never run in the Trump era of the GOP” since retiring in 2014.

“The tightening presidential contest in the Wolverine State and the potential for a drop in base Democratic turnout could have a unique impact on the Senate race,” CPR said.

Michigan is the only state where Slotkin, a Democrat, is running behind Biden, CPR said, citing RealClearPolitics averages. That is likely because she is not universally known by Michiganders.

“Democrats say their polling still has Slotkin running better than Biden, but there’s no denying it’s very close,” Taylor wrote in the analysis. “As such, we are shifting the open Michigan Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up.”

Slotkin announced her Senate campaign in early 2023 after the Michigan seat opened with Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) retirement.

CPR noted that there is little data available after Biden’s debate to either “throw the party fully into panic or completely calm fears.”

Still, the nonpartisan organization said even if every vulnerable Senate Democrat wins reelection, “it wouldn’t be enough to keep their majority intact.”

The new Michigan reading follows another CPR analysis this week that shows Trump is gaining ground in key swing states.

Biden’s defiance against stepping aside only worsened his chances in November. The group moved Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”

The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from its toss-up category to “Lean Republican.”