MILWAUKEE — Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) selection as former President Trump’s running mate could have major implications for the GOP’s potential succession fight, putting him in early pole position to become the party’s standard-bearer in a post-Trump era.
Trump’s vice presidential selection decision was always going to have major ramifications, but those are magnified further as he is limited to a single term, setting up a potential primary battle in 2028 to carry on the ex-president’s mantle.
Vance, 39, has now rocketed toward the top of the list in the eyes of many top Republicans who argue that a successful stint as vice president would put him in a prime spot to lead the America First agenda well into the future.
“We’re getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here, but he’s got a very bright future, and obviously if we are successful and can serve as vice president, he, I’m sure, will be on a lot of people’s lists … for a long time to come,” said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), a top contender to become Senate Republican leader next year.
“He’s a powerful messenger,” Thune continued. “Very articulate, and whether you agree with him or not, he … always makes a really good argument, makes his case, and I think he’ll be a ferocious defender of President Trump and his policies.”
Trump announced Monday he had chosen Vance as his running mate, opting for the first-term senator over other finalists including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R).
In doing so, Trump sent a signal that he was focused not just on winning in November, but on setting the trajectory of the party well into the future.
Parts of Trump’s base had been skeptical of Rubio, a more traditional conservative, and Burgum was not considered a candidate who would excite Trump’s followers.
Vance is viewed as someone who could not only appeal to working-class voters in Pennsylvania in the upcoming election, but could also communicate directly with Trump’s supporters, is aligned with Trump on policy and could serve as a younger face of the “America First” movement.
“Donald Trump, I think, is thinking these days a lot about the future, and the future is JD Vance,” said Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who is close with both men.
“JD Vance is proworker, he’s strong on the border, he’s tough on China. He understands what’s at stake. And he aligns with Donald Trump on all of the issues,” said Banks, whom Trump endorsed in this year’s Indiana Senate race. “I think that’s what it comes down to: He represents the future of the party and the movement.”
Donald Trump Jr. is close with Vance and was a vocal proponent of his father picking him as a running mate.
Trump Jr. brushed aside concern that Vance’s inexperience or his youth could be a liability. Instead, he argued, it would be an asset and a way to carry the party into the future.
“I love that JD is young. My father built Trump Tower at 37. You can be young and accomplished,” Trump Jr. told reporters on the convention floor after the pick was announced.
“I love that he’s young, because I see him as someone who can actually kind of carry that America First movement forward,” Trump Jr. added. “It’s about a new generation of Republican Party. He’s a young guy that can carry that.”
Vance’s own evolution reflects how Trump has completely reshaped the party. He was once a fierce Trump critic, decrying him as “noxious” and “an idiot” around the 2016 election.
But the senator has spoken repeatedly about how he was wrong about Trump and has since become one of his staunchest supporters. Vance has adopted Trump’s views on trade, the border, cracking down on China and stopping additional U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The Ohio Republican has also shown during his initial year and a half in the upper chamber that he is unafraid to throw his weight around — a fact that was not lost on his more like-minded colleagues.
“He hit the ground running for us, and I’m thinking, ‘Man, here’s a rookie coming in and he let the leadership know real quick what he thought,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), pointing to his repeated comments opposing more aid for Ukraine or the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, that has put him on the other side of many Senate Republicans.
Tuberville declined to get into 2028 possibilities for Vance, pointing to the more pressing need to reelect the former president in November.
“It does give you a lot of name recognition, but can’t worry about that right now,” Tuberville said. “We’ve got to get Trump and he elected and then let ‘em take it from there.”
With Trump a lame-duck president should he win a second term, there are already signs of some in the party keeping an eye toward 2028.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who ran an unsuccessful primary campaign this cycle, is set to speak at an Iowa Republican Party event being held here during the convention.
Vance, who hails from a Midwest state, would hypothetically be attractive to voters in Iowa, top Republicans argue.
“I would say it puts him in the driver’s seat for being a national leader,” said Jeff Kaufmann, the chair of the Iowa Republican Party.
DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), Trump’s foremost primary challengers, both addressed the convention Tuesday night.
No matter the wishes of others, Vance’s potential promotion could give him a platform many Republicans could only dream of.
“If he’s not the heir apparent today, I don’t know who is,” one Republican operative said.
But some high-profile party figures believe that while it’s a big move for him, it wouldn’t come close to sealing anything in 2028. They specifically point to a potential second Trump Cabinet that could be chock-full of potential White House aspirants ahead of the next presidential cycle.
“I don’t know that that would be the case,” former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said. “[Trump’s] going to have a lot of people in there, and so there’s going to be a lot of very capable people [interested].”
“No telling that gives him some advantage,” McCarthy continued. “But I still don’t think it locks it in for him.”