Trump holds edge over Biden in Virginia: Poll

President Biden is trailing former President Trump within the margin of error in Virginia, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Thursday. 

The survey found that 45 percent of Virginia voters said they support Trump, while 43 percent back Biden. Eleven percent of voters said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three points. 

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” said Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

The poll found that when third party candidates are factored in, Trump leads Biden 43 percent to 38 percent. 

But the same survey found Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.) leading his GOP challenger, Hung Cao, by 10 points — 49 percent to 39 percent. That is reflective of a broader trend across battleground states in which Democratic Senate incumbents have performed better than Biden.

Thursday’s poll comes as other recent surveys show Biden facing a close race in the Old Dominion. A Florida Atlantic University poll released on Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump by five points, 47 to 42 percent. 

Meanwhile, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll released on Monday showed Trump leading Biden by three points in Virginia, while a New York Times-Siena College poll released the same day showed Biden leading Trump by three points in the commonwealth. 

Republicans say they are feeling increasingly optimistic in their chances in Virginia, which has not gone Republican at the presidential level since 2004. Trump notably picked the Hampton Roads area, one of the swingiest regions in the state, as the site of his post-debate rally last month where he appeared with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).

The GOP has pointed to Youngkin’s 2021 win as a potential blueprint for Trump in the state. But Virginia Democrats have had significant down-ballot electoral successes in the 2022 midterms and the 2023 state legislature elections.

The same Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey showed Youngkin with a 46 percent approval rating and a 38 percent disapproval rating. Biden holds a 37 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was July 13-15 among 1,000 Virginia registered voters.