The Trump campaign’s pollster on Tuesday predicted Vice President Harris will see a polling boost in the coming weeks after she became the likely Democratic nominee, replacing President Biden, but they insisted the race for the White House is unchanged.
Tony Fabrizio said in a memo shared with reporters that there would be a “Harris Honeymoon” in public polling as she gets wall-to-wall coverage following the change atop the Democratic ticket.
“The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term,” Fabrizio said.
“That means we will start to see public polling — particularly national public polls — where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump,” he added.
Fabrizio acknowledged the election has entered “uncharted territory” as one major party candidate bows out less than four months from Election Day. He noted Trump received a polling bump in recent days following the assassination attempt against him and the Republican National Convention.
“Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat’s Convention,” Fabrizio said. “And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down.”
Democrats will try to argue the polls show a changing contest, Fabrizio said, but “the fundamentals of the race stay the same.” Polls had for months showed Trump leading Biden in several key battleground states.
“The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars,” he said. “Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot.”
As Fabrizio predicted, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday and conducted after Biden said he would not run for reelection showed Harris leading Trump nationally, 44 percent to 42 percent, within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week, prior to Biden’s announcement, showed Harris and Trump tied at 44 percent each.
Battleground state polling of a Harris-Trump matchup has been limited. A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month found Harris running slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania and Virginia, both states Democrats need to win.