Trump edges out Harris in key swing states, ties with her in Wisconsin: Poll

Former President Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, in several battleground states, and the two are tied in Wisconsin, according to a new set of polls. 

The survey released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent; by 2 points in Georgia, 48 percent to 46 percent; by 1 point in Michigan, 46 percent to 45 percent; by 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 46 percent; and tied with her at 47 percent in Wisconsin. 

In every state except Arizona, the polling falls within the survey’s margin of error, meaning Trump and Harris could actually be tied in most of the battleground state match-ups. 

Harris notably outpaces President Biden in polling of each of the battleground states since a similar survey was released earlier this month, outperforming the president by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

An aggregate of national polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ had Trump leading Harris as of Wednesday afternoon, roughly 48 percent to 46 percent — a slightly narrower margin than an aggregate of national polls showing Trump leading Biden 47 percent to 43 percent.

The vice president has already hit the ground running since receiving Biden’s endorsement Sunday, visiting Milwaukee on Tuesday for her first rally since Biden dropped out. 

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.” 

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

Of the floated vice presidential contenders hailing from key swing states — Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) — Shapiro saw the highest number of Democratic voters from within their respective state support him to be Harris’s running mate, at 57 percent. Meanwhile, 42 percent of Arizona Democratic voters supported Kelly, and 36 percent of Michigan Democratic voters backed Whitmer. 

The polling also offered good news for Senate Democrats: Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), in addition to Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), lead their respective Senate Republican competitors by either 4 or 5 points. 

Democrats have rallied around Harris after Biden announced over the weekend he would be withdrawing from the presidential race, instead backing his vice president. A number of high-profile Democrats quickly threw their support behind Harris, with just weeks to go before the Democratic National Convention.

The polling also illustrates how Senate Democratic candidates are continuing to outperform the Democratic presidential nominee.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey surveyed respondents from July 22-23. It polled 800 respondents apiece in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in each. In Pennsylvania, 850 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, and in Wisconsin, 845 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.