Vice President Harris’s white-hot start to her presidential campaign is prompting questions over how long her political honeymoon can last.
Republicans for days have said Harris’s performance in the days since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and backed her is more of a shooting star than anything sustainable, and with three months remaining until November, they expect her to follow the laws of political gravity and crash back down to earth.
But Democrats are bullish that Harris’s first-week success is sustainable and say the idea of a short-lived honeymoon is foolish.
“There’s no limit on a honeymoon. She obviously is at this moment the right person to unify the Democratic Party, and when you unify the Democratic Party, that creates a lot of wind in your sails,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.). “She’s got a lot of momentum and I think that’s going to keep up for a good while.”
“You can’t fake this. This is real,” Hickenlooper continued, pointing to the polls showing voters were frustrated with the choices of Trump and Biden. “Well now they’re excited that they’ve got someone that’s younger and energetic and has that momentum and enthusiasm that makes everyone feel better about their day.”
Harris in the past week has seen record-breaking fundraising, an influx of endorsements from Democrats and support from enough delegates to secure the nomination.
As of Tuesday night, the vice president’s campaign said it has raised $126 million since making her bid official Sunday afternoon, with Democrats maintaining that fundraising prowess can keep up.
Democrats have also seen a major uptick in support from young voters since Harris launched her bid. According to an Axios/Generation Lab survey, Harris leads by 20 percentage points with the group, while the president only topped Trump by a 6-point margin.
“I don’t think she’s peaked yet,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told The Hill.
But there are some parts of her early shock-and-awe campaign that can’t be repeated, including the high-profile endorsements from Senate and House Democrats, along with most high-wattage power brokers in the party like former President Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama.
And, to be sure, the manner in which the torch was passed onto her was a historic political earthquake. Biden stepped aside under heavy pressure from fellow Democrats and endorsed Harris, creating a level of excitement that some say may not have existed if Biden had never attempted to run for reelection and Democrats had a typical primary process.
Harris does have some smaller arrows in her quiver to keep up the momentum, including the Democratic National Convention and her selection of a vice presidential nominee — though some Democrats believe the impact will be limited.
“It’s a Harris thing,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “I think there are lots of potential VP candidates, but we’re seeing the enthusiasm now in the absence of a VP pick.”
The Democratic National Committee expects Harris, if no one challenges her, to officially secure the nomination Aug. 1, pick a running mate in advance of Aug. 7 and head to the convention Aug. 19 — setting up for a lively next month for Democrats.
While Harris has had an impressive start, Trump still leads in the majority of polls, including in battleground states, though Harris has closed the gap created in large part by Biden’s debate performance.
Republicans think once they are able to get the message across about what they deem are problematic stances by the vice president, including on the border, energy and policing, she will come back to earth.
“I think there’s a euphoria that it’s not Biden,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R), who is running for the Indiana governorship in November. “I think once you start kind of looking at where she comes from on policy, she could do worse than Biden.”
Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville warned that excitement over Harris has to “be tempered with realism,” reminding Democrats that there’s still a tough campaign to run. Carville also warned against “this kind of giddy elation,” among Democrats, adding it’s “not going to be very helpful much longer” against Republicans this cycle.
A survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump narrowly leading Harris in key battleground states but by margins that outpace Biden’s polling in those states against Trump. An aggregate of national polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ has Trump leading Harris roughly 48 percent to 46 percent, showing Harris still has ground to make up.
Anita McBride, former chief of staff to former first lady Laura Bush, said she’s not surprised by the momentum behind Harris because Democrats had time to make up after losing three valuable weeks of intraparty fighting.
But she noted how quickly things change in politics.
“Things can change on a dime, and something can happen that changes a campaign, can change the focus of the campaign, can change the coverage of the campaign. Clearly, we saw that in Butler, Pennsylvania,” she said, referring to the assassination attempt against Trump.
“Absolutely, this is a honeymoon period right now. People are strengthened and more confident because they are unified. There’s not going to be fighting on that convention floor,” she said, “But, anything can happen. It’s just, in politics, every day is an eternity,” she added.
There’s also the question of how the debates — if they happen — will impact the political landscape. The debate between Biden and Trump late last month shook up the 2024 race because the president’s poor performance led to calls for him to step aside.
The Trump campaign hasn’t committee to any debates yet, but Harris appeared confident on Thursday.
“I’ll tell you I’m ready to debate Donald Trump. I have agreed to the previously agreed upon September 10 debate. He agreed to that previously,” she told reporters. “Now, here he is backpedaling, and I’m ready, and I think the voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage, and so I’m ready to go.”