Harris’s rise could roil Lake-Gallego showdown in Arizona

With Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on a glide path toward their respective primary victories Tuesday, both parties are watching closely to see how the recent shake-up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket could alter the Arizona Senate race in November.

Both parties see an opportunity to make inroads in the race. While Republicans have largely been pessimistic about the controversial Lake’s ability to appeal to a broader swath of the electorate, some believe Harris — who has come under attack from the right over the border — could aid her downballot.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hopeful that if Harris picks Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) — who has proven appeal with Democrats and independents alike — as her running mate, Gallego could ride on her campaign’s coattails.

As Stan Barnes, a former Arizona state GOP lawmaker, posited, “What is more powerful: The difficulty a Trump-oriented enthusiast like Kari Lake has with that middle-ground voter, or the difficulty Congressman Gallego [has] selling support of Kamala Harris and trying to explain where the Democrats have been on the border?”

Gallego and Lake are gearing up for a high-stakes election in November as the two angle for retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat. An aggregate of Arizona polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show the Arizona congressman leading the former local news anchor, 47 percent to 43 percent. 

Weeks ago, Democrats had sounded the alarm over President Biden’s reelection, worried he could impact candidates in critical downballot races. But with Harris likely to be at the very top of the ticket now, some in the party are seeing reasons to be more optimistic.

Recent polling from Emerson College Polling and The Hill suggests Harris could help Democrats in battleground states. The surveys showed her trailing former President Trump in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent — but still outperforming Biden, who polled at 40 percent in the Grand Canyon State in the last survey conducted by Emerson. In other battleground states, the new poll shows Harris outperforming Biden between 3 points and 5 points. 

Polling, of course, could still change with less than 100 days to go before the November election. 

Lake, meanwhile, has faced her own challenges as she appears to be the clear favorite in Tuesday’s primary, where she is squaring off against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Though she has made some attempts to court moderates, she has in many ways run as the same kind of conservative firebrand that she did when running for governor in 2022 — much to the chagrin of some members of the party. 

“Kari is who she is,” a source familiar with the Lake campaign said.

“There is not a lot that Kari needs to change. She needs to be herself and … run her race,” the source said, noting the slim margin Lake lost by in 2022.

The source noted that despite Lake’s campaign spending less than Gallego, the race was only getting tighter, arguing that her “messaging discipline is working” and she has been “doing the work out on the ground.”

Some Republicans are also hopeful that Harris at the top of the ticket will help the GOP in the state.

“Whether Mark Lamb or Kari Lake wins, the Harris being at the top of the ticket is going to give us a great deal of controversy to play off of,” said Dave Smith, chair of the Pima County GOP. “Whether or not people believe she was the czar of the border or not, the border is a huge issue here.”

Harris was tapped in 2021 to helm efforts addressing “the root causes” of migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, and the GOP has seized on the term “border czar” to label her, though that was never an actual title.

Barnes, the former state GOP lawmaker, also suggested Harris wouldn’t be helpful in a state like Arizona, because “she’s a liberal from California, and liberals from California don’t work in Arizona.”

But other Republicans believe the race could become more competitive now that Harris helms the top of the ticket.

“The one reason [Lake] was making up ground, in my opinion, wasn’t because of her killer ads or Gallego deficiencies. It was just Trump was strutting in Arizona,” Republican consultant Jason Rose said.

When Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket, Gallego consistently outperformed the president and has generally edged out Lake in polling. The recent polling from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released this week showed Gallego at 46 percent and Lake at 42 percent. 

While Democrats in competitive Senate races distanced themselves from Biden, who suffered nagging underwater approval ratings, some of those same candidates have been less shy to align themselves with the vice president.

“As Vice President, @KamalaHarris has been crossing the country and visiting states like ours to defend the right for women to make their own health care decisions,” Gallego wrote on social media after Biden dropped out. “I look forward to fighting with her to defend those rights as she works to earn the nomination.”

Gallego has already faced attacks over the issue of immigration from Lake and the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. The congressman, who has sought to eschew his progressive bona fides, has leaned into some of those issues himself, airing an ad of him with a Democratic sheriff in Santa Cruz County. Gallego called Biden’s executive order in June that limited asylum claims a “step in the right direction” but argued more needed to be done.

Gallego’s campaign has also sought to remind voters of his military background while also leaning into issues that resonate with the Democratic base, like abortion.

“Ruben Gallego is a Marine combat veteran who has always put Arizonans first to cut costs for families, defend abortion rights, and protect our seniors’ Social Security and Medicare,” Gallego campaign spokesperson Hannah Goss said. “Meanwhile, Kari Lake is a power-hungry opportunist who will do anything to get power — even if it means banning abortion or declaring herself governor after her 2022 loss. She does not represent Arizona values, and that is exactly why she will lose once again this year.” 

The Harris campaign, too, is redirecting attacks over immigration back onto Trump, arguing he doesn’t have a great track record on the issue himself. 

“Donald Trump tanked the bipartisan border security deal because for Donald Trump, this has never been about solutions just running on a problem,” a Harris campaign spokesperson said. “Like everything with Donald Trump, it’s never been about helping the country, it’s only about helping himself. There’s only one candidate in this race who will fight for bipartisan solutions to strengthen border security, and that’s Vice President Harris.”

There are also lingering questions over whom Harris could choose as vice president. Kelly is purportedly on the shortlist of those under consideration. The Harris campaign spokesperson confirmed it has started vetting potential vice presidential candidates.  

“That process has begun in earnest and we do not expect to have additional updates until the Vice President announces who will be serving as her running mate and as the next Vice President of the United States,” the spokesperson said. 

Gallego himself has spoken highly of the prospect of Kelly as Harris’s running mate, saying the former astronaut would offer a “jolt” to the campaign. 

Speaking outside the Capitol on Thursday, Kelly left the door open to whether he wanted to be Harris’s running mate — keeping Arizona Democrats hopeful they could see their astronaut on the ballot once again.

“He’s phenomenal,” said Steven Slugocki, former chair of the Maricopa County Democratic Party.

“I think if he was picked for the vice presidency, I think it’s going to do nothing but help Arizona and Ruben win this election.”