Campaign

Harris slices Trump’s national lead in half: New polling average

by Sarah Fortinsky - 07/31/24 8:01 PM ET

Vice President Harris halved former President Trump’s 2024 lead in a newly relaunched national polling average that replaces President Biden with Harris as Trump’s likely Democratic opponent.

The first iteration of Cook Political Report’s (CPR) new average, relaunched on Wednesday, shows Trump leading Harris by 1.3 points — 47.5 percent support to 46.2 percent. In the previous polling average, on July 21, Trump was leading Biden by 2.7 points — 47.4 percent support to 44.7 percent.

The relaunched polling average includes 15 surveys of hypothetical Harris-Trump head-to-head match-ups conducted in the last 60 days. The polls are weighted by how recently they were conducted, according to CPR.

The results are similar to the national polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, which shows Trump leading Harris by 1.2 percentage points — 47.8 percent to 46.6 percent.

Harris’s polling average, compared to Biden’s July 21 average, improved modestly in certain key groups. Harris now leads Trump among women by 7.7 percentage points (50.8 percent to 43.1 percent), compared to Biden’s previous 5.9-point lead.

Harris leads Trump among Black voters by 53.1 points (72.4 percent to 19.3 percent), compared to Biden’s 51.5-point lead.

Harris leads Trump among Hispanic voters by 10.4 points (51.1 percent to 41.1 percent), compared to Biden’s 6.8-point lead.

The new polling average comes as Harris’s emergence as the likely Democratic nominee has prompted an enthusiasm boost among Democrats.

Tags 2024 presidential election biden Donald Trump Harris Joe Biden Kamala Harris trump