The election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Vice President Harris as she continues to close the polling gap with former President Trump.
All three states had been considered “lean Republican” in early July, while President Biden was still in the race and falling further behind Trump both on the national level and in the key battleground states. But with polls showing Harris getting back within the margin of error of Trump, or in some cases slightly ahead, the three swing states have been moved to be a “toss Up.”
“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities,” Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote in a post explaining the decision.
“In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest,” she continued.
Cook pointed to the polling averages for the six main swing states as calculated by FiveThirtyEight to demonstrate how the race has changed. Trump led by at least a couple of points in all of them July 21, the day that Biden dropped out. The states are now razor-tight, with Harris slightly leading in a few.
Trump’s largest lead had been in Georgia, where he led by 5.9 points in the average, but it’s now down to just a 1-point edge. In Arizona, his prior lead of 5.5 points is currently 1.9.
Not enough polling has come from Nevada for an updated average, but Walter cites CBS and Bloomberg polls that have shown Harris ahead by 2 points.
Arizona, Georgia and Nevada rejoin the other battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as toss-ups in Cook’s analysis.
The shift comes after another handicapper, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, moved its rating of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Georgia toward Harris.
Trump allies have argued that Harris is in a honeymoon period following her entry into the race that will not last nor fundamentally shift the race.
“Republicans argue that Harris is on a sugar high that will be hard to sustain for more than 90 straight days, especially once the conversation turns away from the things Harris can control (a VP roll-out and the DNC programming), to things she can’t (perceptions about the state of inflation and frustration with the status quo),” Walter said, noting Republicans have stepped up attacks on Harris recently.
“Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up,” she concluded.