Senate Democrats are feeling more confident about their chances of keeping the Senate majority with Vice President Harris leading the ticket, arguing her momentum could lift them despite a nightmare battleground map.
The GOP has long been the favorite to take the Senate this fall because Democrats are defending more difficult-to-hold seats. Republicans need only to net two seats in total to take the majority even if they lose the White House.
With or without Harris, Republicans have been expected to pick up one seat in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (I) is retiring and Gov. Jim Justice (R) is a heavy favorite. Unless both Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown and Montana Sen. Jon Tester can hold on to their seats in their red states, Republicans will take the chamber.
Still, Democrats think their slim hopes have grown with the jolts Harris has given the party.
“The energy upsurge is dramatic,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who is up for reelection.
“I’ve even talked to red-staters who said, ‘Well, no Democrat’s winning my state’s electoral votes, but in order for me to win my race, I need to have young voters energized — and they’re energized,’” Kaine said.
Democrats are relying on a similar playbook to their 2022 operation. That year incumbents nabbed reelection victories and Democrats expanded their majority.
But the map this go-around is littered with landmines, particularly in Montana and Ohio.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey conducted earlier this month found Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy holding a 2-point lead over Tester in Montana, 48 percent support to 46 percent. In March, the same pollster found Tester holding a 2-point lead. Both numbers are within the margin of error.
In Ohio, however, Brown has consistently held a single-digit advantage over Republican Bernie Moreno. A poll conducted for AARP in the days after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris found Brown with a 4-point lead.
Beyond that, early numbers for Harris and newly minted running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have given newfound confidence to Democrats vying to keep purple-state seats in Democratic hands — including Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), both of whom are running in states where Trump held commanding leads against Biden.
The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Harris. A poll released Thursday showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump in Arizona, while Gallego — who is vying for the seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats — held an 11-point lead over Republican nominee Kari Lake.
Harris’s numbers have also rebounded in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All three are within the margin of error, which is good news for Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). All three had been running ahead of Biden, but the states were still considered up for grabs.
“The vibes are great. We’re feeling really good about the map, and the amount of energy that’s on the ground is significant,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the Senate Democratic Senatorial Committee, who pointed to a recent Saturday canvassing kickoff in the state.
“Getting volunteers out on a beautiful Saturday morning in Michigan is not an easy task in the summer. It’s like, ‘Do you want to go to the lake or do you want to go out door-knocking?’” Peters said, adding that the number of volunteers “doubled in just one week.”
Kaine nodded to a data point of his own to explain the uptick in excitement from the base. He said that prior to President Biden’s departure from the ticket, there was a severe lack of interest from Virginia Democrats in attending the Democratic National Convention later this month.
That’s all changed now.
“Nobody was reaching out to me and saying, ‘Hey, can I get a ticket to come to the convention?’ I had precisely zero outreach from anyone,” Kaine said. “Usually you have folks like, ‘It’s going to be fun!’ Nobody had asked me about it.”
“Since Kamala became the presumptive nominee, my staff and I are dealing with all of these — ‘What hotel is the Virginia delegation staying at? Can you get me on the floor?’” he continued. “There were precisely zero before Kamala was the presumptive nominee.”
Prior to him leaving the race, Biden’s lead had evaporated in Virginia, a state that has turned increasingly blue in recent years.
Senate Republicans also indicated they have seen a swell of support in their states for the vice president, further complicating the map for them as many incumbents had already been running ahead of the top of the ticket. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a top ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), labeled it a “boomlet.”
Still, the map is brutal for Democrats. The nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report says four Democratic-held seats are toss-ups, while every seat held by a Republican is rated either “likely” or “solid” Republican.
And some Republicans argue that Harris’s momentum will have a shelf life, potentially ebbing by Labor Day, once voters start to tune into the election more closely.
“Five weeks ago today, I was in Atlanta for the debate. That feels like a lifetime ago,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) ahead of the August recess. “Labor Day — kids are back in school, people settle into what the fall campaigning and election season looks like. I still feel comfortable with the presidential race and the Senate map.”