Omar gives progressives a needed boost: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

Progressives in the House received a much-needed victory Tuesday night with Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) winning her primary one week after her fellow “squad” member Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) lost hers.

Unlike the primaries for Bush and Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who was also ousted recently, Omar’s race did not draw the involvement of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) despite her vocal criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza. But it was still a test of the progressive wing’s strength within the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, the last major Senate race and at least one notable House race were also solidified.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries:

Omar gives ‘squad’ a much-needed win

The group of progressive House members known as the “squad” received a badly needed win when Omar held off the same primary challenger for the second cycle in a row. 

Omar nearly lost in a shock upset two years ago when former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels came within 2,500 votes of ousting her. This came despite Omar significantly outraising him, as well as having higher name recognition.

Samuels decided to face off against Omar in a rematch this year. With progressives under more intense scrutiny in the wake of their criticism of Israel’s war following Hamas’s attack against the country Oct. 7, Omar seemed to be in a potentially vulnerable position. 

He attacked her as too divisive and not focused on serving her district, while arguing that he would be more effective in the House.

But a few factors worked in Omar’s favor this time. She again outraised Samuels by a lot, but this time she also outspent him, an apparent acknowledgment of the need to work to ensure an upset win didn’t happen. Just as significantly, AIPAC stayed out of her primary.

Progressives can breathe a sigh of relief with her win, but Samuels did still manage to win about 43 percent of the vote, a significant share for a primary challenger who was well outraised and spent. 

The last major Senate race is set

The last of the outstanding major Senate match-ups this fall was officially set Tuesday in Wisconsin, where businessman Eric Hovde officially clinched the Republican nomination to face incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

Hovde easily dispatched two minor primary opponents to win the nomination. He had the support of former President Trump, various top figures in the GOP and the Senate Republican campaign arm. The race will be particularly crucial for Democrats if the party is to have a chance at holding onto its narrow majority in the Senate.

Hovde faces a challenge in his race against Baldwin, a popular two-term incumbent who has been elected twice by a comfortable margin for a battleground state. One advantage Hovde will have in the race is the personal wealth he gained from his banking career. 

He has loaned his campaign $13 million already. 

But Democrats have sought to attack him over his wealth and his ties to California, where he owned a bank. Senate Democrats’ campaign arm released an ad calling him a “California jerk” soon after he clinched the nomination. 

Hovde and Republicans, meanwhile, have tied Baldwin to the Biden administration, especially on issues of inflation and immigration. 

Dems get a big victory in Wisconsin

Wisconsin voters rejected two ballot initiatives that the Republican-led Legislature put forward that would have curbed the Democratic governor’s power on fiscal matters. 

One of the measures would have prohibited the state Legislature from delegating its authority to direct funds to other governing entities, while another would have required the governor to receive legislative approval before distributing federal funds provided to the state. 

The Legislature passed them twice before sending them to the ballot for voters to decide, as required by the state constitution. They passed in the aftermath of millions in funding flowing into the state for Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) to disburse to address the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Republicans argued the Legislature should have oversight of how funds are being used, while Democrats, including Evers, slammed the measures as an attempted power grab from the Legislature. 

The measures also received criticism, as they would have added an extra step in the process of allocating funds when federal funding is often being provided to deal with natural disasters and other emergencies.

Voters ultimately rejected both measures by a decently comfortable margin, with 57 percent voting against them as of time of publication. The measures were the latest development in protracted battles between Evers and the Republican-dominated Legislature. 

Trump-backed candidate ekes out win

A candidate backed by Trump scraped by in a primary to fill a vacant seat in a solidly red House district.

Former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) represented Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District for seven years before deciding against running for reelection and stepping down in April to take a job in the private sector. His resignation triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term, set for the same primary and general election days as to decide who will serve in his seat for the next term.

Trump threw his support behind businessman and former gas station owner Tony Wied, as did Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Kevin Hern (R-Okla.). But two other major candidates in the primary also scored notable endorsements. 

Former Wisconsin Senate President Roger Roth had the support of former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.), along with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. State Sen. André Jacque received backing from Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R). 

But Wied outspent and outraised his two opponents and was able to notch a win in the special primary for the rest of Gallagher’s term and the regular primary for the next term, though he only won narrowly over Roth. 

A moderate Dem will take on Van Orden

Another battle between moderates and progressives played out in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District in the Democratic primary to face Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.). 

Business owner Rebecca Cooke defeated state Rep. Katrina Shankland in a close race for the nomination. Cooke had the support of centrists including Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and the Blue Dog Coalition, while Shankland was backed by progressive groups and labor unions like MoveOn and the Wisconsin AFL-CIO. 

Cooke will run against a close Trump ally in Van Orden, who ran unopposed for the GOP nomination. The first-term representative was present at Trump’s rally ahead of the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Decision Desk HQ and Cook Political Report both consider the seat to be lean Republican, but Democrats will hope to be able to pick off Van Orden as part of their effort to retake a majority in the House. A moderate Democrat, former Rep. Ron Kind, had represented the district for decades before retiring ahead of Van Orden’s election in 2022.