Democrats see abortion, Harris as leading them back to House majority

House Democrats — already energized by the surging presidential ticket topped by Vice President Harris — are increasingly optimistic that a growing number of abortion referendums across the country this cycle will help them win the House and the presidency come November.

The secretaries of state in Arizona and Missouri greenlighted two pro-abortion rights ballot initiatives this week, bringing the total number of referendums regarding the issue to eight this cycle, according to KFF. A handful of other efforts are pending across the country.

Women’s reproductive rights played a crucial role in the 2022 midterm elections, when anger over the Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade drove Democrats to ballot boxes in large numbers, producing better-than-expected results for the party. The Democratic enthusiasm blunted a widely anticipated GOP “red wave,” leaving Republicans with just a slim majority in the House.

With less than three months to go until Election Day, House Democrats are hopeful the rising number of abortion initiatives on the ballot — coupled with Harris’s place as the presidential nominee — will help motivate voters and generate victories for the party, both at the top of the ticket and downballot.

“When abortion rights are on the ballot, people turn out to defend their rights, and Democrats win,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told The Hill in an interview. “This has been true throughout this cycle — in special election after special election, we have seen increased turnout when abortion has been on the ballot.”

“We want to put laws passed in place to protect reproductive freedom. That’s a top priority for us,” she later added, “and we’re gonna be very clear to voters across the country about that, and so will Vice President Harris.”

Rep. Dina Titus (D) of Nevada, which has an abortion measure on the ballot this cycle, said women’s reproductive rights are emerging as an even more important issue this cycle than the last one, because former President Trump is back on the ballot. Republicans across the country have gone after abortion rights, and Trump, during a press conference last week, suggested he was open to banning a widely used abortion pill, mifepristone, a stance his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), walked back days later.

“I thought maybe it was just an issue for the last election and it wouldn’t be so important now, but I think it’s even more important now, because you have seen this Supreme Court at work, you have heard bizarre comments from the vice presidential candidate, and Trump continues to brag about the people he put on the Supreme Court and overturned Roe v. Wade,” Titus said. “So it’s even more acute now than it was then.”

Democrats are leaning into abortion rights as Harris — the administration’s lead voice on the issue — has pumped new energy into the 2024 cycle, putting the issue of women’s reproductive rights front and center with a messenger more effective than President Biden, who stepped aside from the top of the ticket last month.

In July, as a six-week abortion ban took effect in Iowa, the Harris campaign launched a “Fight for Reproduction Freedom Week of Action,” which featured events in battleground states focused on “all that’s at stake for reproductive rights in this election.” During a rally that month, Harris declared “we are not playing around” on restoring abortion rights on the federal level.

The DCCC, similarly, has made women’s reproductive rights a central theme this cycle. Last month, after Biden dropped out and threw his support behind Harris, the campaign arm referenced GOP efforts to curtail abortion in its memo detailing Democrats’ path back to the majority. Before that, in April, the group issued a memorandum zeroing in on vulnerable Republicans running in states where women’s reproductive rights is on the ballot in November.

The number of states with abortion-related ballot initiatives has increased since then.

Voters in Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, South Dakota, New York, Maryland and Florida will weigh in on measures to protect abortion rights in their states in November, while some other key states — including Montana and Nebraska — are in the process of getting their petitions for referendum approved.

The growing number of ballot initiatives is fueling hope among House Democrats that voter turnout will be turbocharged this cycle. The referendums, they say, could further energize Democrats who are already excited by Harris’s candidacy, and propel voters who are unenthused by the slate of candidates before them but dedicated to protecting women’s reproductive rights.

Once those individuals arrive at the ballot boxes to support abortion rights, the House Democrats predicted, they will also cast votes in support of candidates dedicated to the cause.

“I absolutely think that there are voters that perhaps wouldn’t be so motivated by a candidate or a slate of candidates as far as their decision to even vote at all,” Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said. “But when it comes to the government interfering with their personal health care choices, that is a motivator that propels some voters to the polls and causes them, once they’re in the ballot box — as we’ve seen with election victories that were unexpected across the country — that they’re not just casting a vote for reproductive freedom in the question that’s on the ballot, but they’re voting for candidates who support that position as well.”

That elevated turnout, if it comes to fruition, could be key for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada, two states that will play a large role in determining not only the winner of the presidential race, but also which party controls the House and Senate.

In Arizona, voters will weigh in on amending the state constitution to ensure the right to an abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, and in Nevada, there will be the question of recognizing a fundamental right to abortion.

Arizona and Nevada — which carry a combined 17 electoral college votes — are both toss-ups this cycle, according to Cook Political Report. But with abortion on the ballot, Democrats who hail from those states say Democratic enthusiasm over women’s reproductive rights could put Harris over the edge.

“It’s an important boost to the vice president, who is doing very, very well in Arizona,” Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) said. “I think you’re gonna see Vice President Harris do well in Arizona.”

Titus, similarly, said the issue of abortion will help Democrats at the top of the ticket and downballot.

“I do believe it will make a difference,” she said of the impact abortion politics will have on Harris’s chances at the White House, adding, “I certainly think it helps some Democratic candidates here in Nevada, because people are [reminded] of a Republican House having said that they would do a national abortion ban.”

The optimism, to be sure, is not unfounded. Five states had abortion initiatives on the ballot in November 2022 — some supportive of the procedure, others opposed to it — including in Michigan, where voters easily passed a proposal to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution.

Of the 25 districts that saw the highest voter turnout that year, six were in Michigan, with five of them in the top 10, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball. It was also a significant cycle for in-state Democrats: The party secured a trifecta for the first time since 1985.

Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), a member of the Pro Choice Caucus, said the initiative “absolutely” drove turnout in the Wolverine State that year, and predicted the same dynamic will emerge in states that have the issue on the ballot this cycle.

“I think it turns out voters, and voters vote on that issue,” Dingell said. “I think that’s the issue that drives people to the polls, and then they vote for candidates that support keeping the government out of a woman’s health care decisions.”

Despite the increasingly hopefulness, some Democrats are urging their party to tread carefully as the calendar inches closer to Election Day.

“We’re optimistic. Let’s not ever be overly confident — we know we got to fight till the last day for the last vote,” Titus said. “But this will certainly be another arrow in our quiver.”

This story was first posted at 5:30 a.m.