Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.
We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail.
LEADING THE DAY:
ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The debate post-mortems were flooding the interwebs this morning, with the general consensus that it was a bad first debate night for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The other candidates, as well as the news media, telegraphed what Bloomberg would be pressed on, whether it was his unearthed, controversial comments about redlining and stop-and-frisk or his past alleged comments about women. Critics say that Bloomberg seemed unprepared for the questions and that his answers were not well thought out.
However, the Bloomberg campaign has worked to spin the debate in his favor. The campaign took heat on Thursday for releasing a video showing Bloomberg asking during the debate if he was the only candidate on stage to ever start a business. The video was edited to make it seem like the other candidates on stage drew massive blanks with crickets in the background. Bloomberg’s campaign spokeswoman Galia Slayen tells me that the video was meant to be “tongue in cheek.” “There were obviously no crickets on the debate stage,” Slayen said.
Meanwhile, the post-debate reviews seemed to play well for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who is in dire need of a comeback after less-than stellar performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. Warren started the debate with her fire aimed at Bloomberg, hitting him on redlining, stop-and-frisk and his past comments about women.
“Democrats are not going to win if we have a nominee who has a history of hiding his tax returns, of harassing women, and of supporting racist policies like redlining and stop and frisk,” Warren said.
The forum appears to have paid dividends for the progressive senator in the short term. Warren’s campaign announced on Thursday that they raised $2.8 million on debate day, bringing in $425,000 in a 30-minute span during the event. Her campaign called it best debate day of the entire campaign.”
We can talk all day about these debates, which seem like they are a dime a dozen at this point, but how much do they actually matter? There will be another one in five days in South Carolina, which could change the perception of a number of the candidates. It’s also worth asking how the debates compare to massive ad buys in influencing voters? We probably won’t know the full answer to this until after Super Tuesday when we see the full impact Bloomberg will have on the race.
–Julia Manchester
READ MORE:
Winners and losers from the Democratic debate in Las Vegas, by The Hill’s Niall Stanage
5 takeaways from the Las Vegas debate, by Jonathan
Bloomberg savaged in first appearance on Democratic debate stage, by The Hill’s Reid Wilson
Warren, Klobuchar get most talking time in Vegas debate, by The Hill’s Justin Wise
Bloomberg debacle spurs Democratic hand-wringing, by The Hill’s Amie Parnes
FROM THE TRAIL:
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s campaign suggested that Bloomberg should exit the presidential race in a memo on Thursday, warning that his presence in the primary contest could help propel Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to the nomination, Julia reports. “If Bloomberg remains in the race despite showing he cannot offer a viable alternative to Bernie Sanders, he will propel Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead siphoning votes away from Pete, the current leader in delegates,” the campaign wrote. The memo, which argues that Buttigieg is the only candidate who has proven himself to be viable alternative to Sanders, came days after a similar memo from the Bloomberg campaign suggested that Biden, Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) should drop out of the race to effectively clear the moderate lane in the primary for the former New York City mayor.
Democrats who were once skeptical about the prospect of a brokered national convention now see it as an increasingly likely scenario, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports. Even after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, seven Democrats are still vying for the nomination and few are showing signs that they are nearing an end to their campaigns. What’s more, there are questions about whether any candidate is well positioned to win a majority of delegates and clinch the nomination before the convention, making the possibility of a brokered convention appear all the more likely. “If you want to see a complete shit show, tune in to the brokered convention,” one Democrat who worked on two campaigns for former President Barack Obama said.
FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:
Republican Senate candidates are almost obsessively tying themselves to President Trump, Reid reports, a strategy that amounts to a gamble that the president’s ultra-conservative base will push them to victory rather than animate moderates and independents who remain uncomfortable with Trump’s brand of politics. In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) featured the president’s praise in his first TV advertisement last year. In Georgia, Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s (R) decision to sit on the sidelines of the 2016 presidential election rather than donate to Trump’s campaign prompted Rep. Doug Collins (R) to mount an intra-party challenge to her election bid. And in Alabama, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville has spoken of Trump as a godsend. For some in deep-red states like Alabama, that strategy appears to be a safe one. But for others in swing states, like Tillis, there’s a greater risk.
Off the Sidelines, the political action committee of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), is partnering with End Citizens United in an effort to elect more women candidates to public office, Max reports. The partnership will raise money and provide strategic advice to women candidates who advocate for campaign finance reform and for curbing the influence of money in politics. The groups haven’t yet said which candidates they’ll back in the 2020 elections but are expected to roll out a list soon.
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) said on Thursday that he will run for the office he occupied up until last year. “We are working on it. I want to see what happens this year with the election,” he told WAGM-TV. LePage served two terms as governor from 2011 until 2019 when term limits blocked him from seeking another consecutive four years in office. He told the television station that he and his wife, who have a home in Florida, are planning to regain residency in the state.
MONEY WATCH:
Warren’s campaign said that it raised more than $2.8 million on Wednesday, The Hill’s Tal Axelrod reports, a fundraising surge that it attributed to her performance in the presidential debate in Las Vegas. During the debate itself, her campaign said, Warren raked in $425,000 over a 30-minute period. As of Thursday afternoon, Warren’s post-debate fundraising had risen to more than $5 million, she said.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised $8.5 million in January, Max reports, a figure that marks the single largest monthly fundraising haul for the group this cycle.
Hours after the DSCC released their January numbers, the group’s GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee announced that it raised more than $10 million over the course of the month, shattering its previous January fundraising record, Tal reports.
POLL WATCH:
WINTHROP UNIVERSITY – SOUTH CAROLINA
Biden: 24 percent (-13)
Sanders: 19 percent (+11)
Steyer: 15 percent (+13)
Buttigieg: 7 percent (+3)
Warren: 6 percent (-11)
Klobuchar: 4 percent (+3)
Gabbard: 1 percent (+/-0)
Sanders: 24 percent
Biden: 17 percent
Bloomberg: 13 percent
Warren: 10 percent
Buttigieg: 9 percent
Steyer: 5 percent
Klobuchar: 4 percent
Gabbard: 2 percent
QUINNIPIAC – TRUMP VS. DEMOCRATS IN SWING STATES
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden-Trump: Biden +8
Klobuchar-Trump: Klobuchar +7
Bloomberg-Trump: Bloomberg +6
Sanders-Trump: Sanders +4
Buttigieg-Trump: Buttigieg +4
Warren-Trump: Warren +3
MICHIGAN
Sanders-Trump: Sanders +5
Bloomberg-Trump: Bloomberg +5
Biden-Trump: Biden +4
Warren-Trump: Warren +2
Buttigieg-Trump: Buttigieg +1
Klobuchar-Trump: Klobuchar +1
WISCONSIN
Biden-Trump: Trump +7
Sanders-Trump: Trump +7
Buttigieg-Trump: Trump +8
Bloomberg-Trump: Trump +8
Warren-Trump: Trump +10
Klobuchar-Trump: Trump +11
MARK YOUR CALENDARS:
There are 2 days until the Nevada caucuses, 9 days until the South Carolina primary and 12 days until Super Tuesday.