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Harris, Trump in close races in key swing states: Polling

by Sarah Fortinsky - 09/04/24 8:10 AM ET

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked in close races with no clear leader emerging in the three battleground states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to CNN’s latest polling.

The surveys, published Wednesday, show Harris leading Trump 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in Georgia and Nevada. They are tied at 47 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

The vice president’s advantage in Georgia and Nevada fall within each state’s margin of error of up to 4.9 percentage points.

Harris, meanwhile, leads 50 percent to 44 percent in Wisconsin and 48 percent to 43 percent in Michigan, while Trump pulls off a 49 percent to 44 percent advantage over Harris in Arizona, according to the polls.

President Biden carried all six states in 2020, but Georgia and Pennsylvania will prove critical for either candidate in the 2024 cycle. In those states, among likely voters who say they have already picked a candidate, 11 percent in the Peach State say they might change their minds, while 15 percent say the same in the Keystone State.

Harris has enjoyed a polling boost since replacing Biden atop the Democratic ticket. In the The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average, she leads Trump 49.4 percent to 45.4 percent.

Harris’s polling average in the three battleground states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania show similar results to CNN’s latest polling. In each state, Harris’s lead falls short of a full percentage point.

The Democratic nominee’s strongest advantage, according to the DDHQ average, is in Wisconsin, where she leads by 3.4 points. In Michigan, she’s ahead by an average of 1.6 percentage points. She is virtually tied with her GOP rival in the Arizona polling average, the survey shows.

The CNN polls, conducted Aug. 23-29, included 682 registered voters in Arizona, 617 registered voters in Georgia, 708 registered voters in Michigan, 626 registered voters in Nevada, 789 registered voters in Pennsylvania and 976 registered voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error for each poll fell between 4.5 and 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.