GOP sees worrying signs in North Carolina governor’s race

Republicans in North Carolina are facing worrying signs in the governor’s race amid a torrent of negative headlines surrounding their candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

Most polls in recent months have shown Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, leading Robinson, an ally of former President Trump who has drawn criticism for his past rhetoric on everything from abortion to the civil rights movement.

Some Republicans fear Robinson’s controversial persona could cost them the governor’s mansion — and the challenge will be even tougher for him as Vice President Harris has seemingly made inroads in the state as well.

“That is the dominant feature of the race,” Republican strategist Douglas Heye said, referring to the controversies surrounding past comments Robinson has made.

Robinson first rose to prominence in 2018 when he spoke in defense of gun rights at a Greensboro City Council meeting, which helped launch his successful run for lieutenant governor in 2020. He narrowly won the election to become the first Black lieutenant governor of the state, even as incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won reelection by a slightly larger margin.

Throughout his political career, Robinson has rallied those on the right as a strong Trump ally and firebrand on conservative principles. But his principles and rhetoric have at times caused friction.

Robinson has made a wide range of controversial comments dating back to before his time in office. He has made derogatory statements about Jews, Muslims, transgender people and Black people who support Democrats. He has described Muslims as “invaders,” referred to homosexuality and “transgenderism” as “filth” and criticized feminism as being “watered by the devil.” 

He has referred to abortion as “murder” and “genocide” and said the issue is about not being “responsible enough to keep your skirt down,” comments with which Stein’s campaign has gone on offense against Robinson. 

He has since softened his stance on abortion, an issue Democrats see as critical both in the state and nationwide. His campaign released an ad last month sharing that his wife had an abortion 30 years ago, calling it a “very difficult decision.” 

Robinson also declared support for the state’s current 12-week abortion law that provides “commonsense exceptions” for protecting the life of the mother and instances of rape and incest. 

Stein, who so far has run without any major stumbles, has seen a notable rise in the polls in recent weeks. Stein currently leads Robinson by more than 9 points in the average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, a reflection of several polls released in recent weeks that have shown him leading by that amount or more. 

“And that has everything to do with female voters being appalled at so many things Robinson has said,” Heye said. 

Polling has shown Robinson trailing by notable margins with women, while the two candidates have been competitive with male voters. 

A recent survey from The Hill/Emerson College Polling had Stein up 6 points overall. While it found the candidates were about even with men, Stein led among women by 12 points. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found Stein leading by 10 points and had Robinson in front with men by 5. But Stein led among women by 23 points, contributing to his lead.

Despite the leads for Stein, both campaigns stress they expect a close race in November in what will be one of the most fiercely contested battlegrounds ahead of the election. 

Stein campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement to The Hill that voters are learning about the difference between the attorney general and lieutenant governor, and that Stein “fights for people” while Robinson “fights job-killing culture wars.” 

“But make no mistake: This race will be very close,” Allen said. “Our campaign is working hard to earn every vote and make sure people know that as governor, Josh Stein will build a safer, stronger North Carolina.”

Robinson communications director Mike Lonergan told The Hill that despite Stein having a significant fundraising advantage, Robinson is “closing the gap and pounding the pavement connecting with voters of all backgrounds around the state,” linking to the Emerson poll that had him down 6 points.

Lonergan also pointed to another poll that only had Robinson trailing by 4 points and noted that polling has underestimated Republican support in multiple recent cycles. 

“With a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the airwaves, Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win in November,” he said. 

Republicans in the state have outperformed polls in the past.

In 2020, polls showed Cooper leading Republican Dan Forest by double digits ahead of Election Day, but he ended up winning by 4.5 points. In the 2016 cycle, Cooper was regularly leading in polls by the last month of the race, yet he only narrowly ousted then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R) by about 0.2 points. 

Polling also showed Democrats Hillary Clinton and President Biden ahead narrowly in 2016 and 2020, respectively, before both instead narrowly lost the state to Trump. 

Republican strategist Jonathan Felts, who served as an adviser to Sen. Ted Budd’s (R-N.C.) 2022 campaign, said the Republican overperformance indicates a much closer race than the polls suggest. 

Members of both parties acknowledged that North Carolina is one of the closest swing states in the country and that it is likely to have results backing that up again this year. 

“We never trusted polls that had us up double digits, and we never trusted polls that had us down double digits with Ted’s race,” Felts said.

A few polls coming out in recent days have Stein’s lead shrinking a bit to mid-single digits. One from East Carolina University had him ahead by 6 points.

Felts also noted Stein has been greatly outpacing Robinson in ad support and reservations, blanketing the airwaves with attacks on him. Stein has a lead in ad support so far by more than a 2-to-1 margin, but that disparity is not likely to remain. 

“The fact is they’ve not totally put away Mark Robinson yet, same playbook they tried with Ted Budd back in 2022,” he said, adding that Republicans need to “come home” to Robinson soon, which he expects will happen.

Polling has largely shown Democrats standing more solidly behind Stein than Republicans are with Robinson. 

The numbers are fueling optimism among Democrats hopeful to keep the governor’s mansion and flip the state to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 2008. 

Aimy Steele, a former Democratic North Carolina state House candidate who runs the New North Carolina Project, an organization seeking to drive “Black and Brown” voter turnout, said Stein has focused on touting his record on “maintaining order” and increasing the testing of rape kits. 

“What I do think is that when we inflate polls or look at polls, we can get a false impression that everything’s OK, and we don’t need to take that approach at all,” she said. “We still have a lot on the line.” 

Gabe Esparza, a former Democratic candidate for North Carolina treasurer, argued Stein and Harris can help each other as they campaign over the next two months, noting Harris and members of the Biden administration have been regularly visiting the state. 

Polling has shown a close race between Harris and Trump in the weeks since she joined the race, and they are currently tied in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average for the state. 

“I think you saw that increase in attention not only demonstrating the belief that North Carolina could indeed not only be in play, but be realistically winnable,” Esparza said. “But it is also an opportunity for Josh and Democratic candidates down the ballot to benefit from that enthusiasm.”