Forecasting pioneer predicts Harris will win election

A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys.

Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former President Trump. His election model is based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore polls and pollsters.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video. 

The 13 keys include whether:

• The White House party gained seats in the House in midterm elections
• The incumbent president is running
• The White House party avoided a primary contest
• A third-party candidate is running
• The short-term economy is strong
• Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms
• The White House has enacted major national policy changes
• There is no social unrest
• There is no scandal in the White House
• The incumbent party candidate has charisma
• The challenger is uncharismatic
• The White House had foreign policy success
• The White House had foreign policy failure

“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said.  

The video’s narrator explained that if a key was false, that meant it was in favor of Trump. 

He found that eight of the keys are true and in favor of Harris, while three are false and favor Trump.

The keys that benefit Trump involve these false statements:

The White House party gained House seats in the 2022 midterm elections. “The Democrats did better than expected in 2022 but they still lost House seats. So the key is false,” he said.

The sitting president is running for reelection. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key, it is false,” Lichtman said.

And, third, the incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic. “This is a very high threshold key. You have to be a once in a generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard. So this key is false.”

Lichtman said the remaining two keys, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip in Trump’s favor before the election.

“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” he said in the video.

While he predicted Harris would win the race, he previously said Democrats’ only chance of winning was if Biden stayed in the race. He said at the time it was “foolhardy nonsense” to suggest the Democrats would replace Biden at the top of the ticket.

Many polls show a close race between Harris and Trump. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows Harris with a 3.6 percentage point lead over the former president, based on an aggregate of 156 polls.

Updated at 12:36 p.m.